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Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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01.09.2025
From Rates to Oil: Key Calls From the Past Seven Days
From Rates to Oil: Key Calls From the Past Seven Days
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Markets often move on data, but just as often they move on words. We have carefully chosen for you remarks from analysts and fund managers made over the past few days that could set the tone for markets into year-end.

Morgan Stanley flips to near-term Fed cuts. After Jackson Hole, Morgan Stanley reversed its stance and now expects the Fed to start cutting in September 2025 (25 bps), followed by another cut in December and a series of quarterly trims through 2026, implying a terminal rate around 2.75%–3.0%. The pivot hinges on Powell’s emphasis on rising labor-market risks.

Trade implication: add duration in the 5-7y U.S. Treasuries sector; consider adding to high-quality corporates that benefit from lower rates. Shorter-maturity floating-rate exposure becomes less attractive.

Goldman Sachs’ oil call: Brent in the low $50s by late 2026. Goldman projects a sizable supply surplus averaging ~1.8mn bpd (Q4’25–Q4’26), building global stocks by ~800mn barrels and dragging Brent’s “fair value” down into the low $50s by end-2026.

Trade implication: reduce high-yield energy bonds where spreads may widen on weaker sector cash flows. Investment grade energy less affected but still warrants caution.

Natixis: next U.S. jobs report as the rate-cut catalyst. Natixis IM’s Jack Janasiewicz argues softer employment data would be taken as “good news,” reinforcing September cut expectations and putting a floor under risk assets despite a modest growth slowdown.

Trade implication: if job market softens significantly, add duration in the 7-10y U.S. Treasuries sector

Morgan Stanley: Hedge funds rotate back into China. A Morgan Stanley analysis highlights August was the strongest month of hedge-fund inflows to China since February, concentrated in onshore A-shares (consumer staples/industrials). So, many funds are tactically leaning into China’s Q3 rebound.

Trade implication: renewed confidence in China’s economy supports EM debt sentiment, so consider adding exposure to Chinese government bonds or Asia IG credit.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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