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Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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16.07.2024
National Debt: Could G7 Debt Spark a New Bond Market Crisis?
National Debt: Could G7 Debt Spark a New Bond Market Crisis?
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Due to slowing inflation in developed countries, investors are now confident in the upcoming key rates cuts and the lower short-term rates. But the medium and long-term rates dynamics are not so obvious. Huge national debt may make investors to reassess the sovereign credit risk, if the newly elected governments continue to increase debt. Here are some current stress points in the bond market.

Government gross debt, 2024 (IMF) in percent of GDP

United States

Growing expectations that Donald Trump will win November's presidential election have lifted Treasury yields recently as investors have priced in the risk of larger budget deficits and higher inflation, especially if Republicans take control over Senate. That would mean another round of fiscal stimulus from a starting point in which the deficit is 6% of GDP. 

United Kingdom

A new Labour government, which has pledged to grow the economy while keeping spending tight, faces challenges, with public debt near 100% of GDP. As we saw in 2022, the unfunded tax cuts may lead to investors fleeing the government bonds and sterling, forcing central bank intervention.

France

With a budget gap at 5.5% of output last year, France faces European Union disciplinary measures. France's bond risk premium over Germany briefly surged last month to the highest since 2012's debt crisis as the far right pushed ahead in the election race. Leftist alliance that won the elections has huge spending plans that could prevent the strengthening of France’s finances. The EU executives expect debt at around 139% of GDP by 2034.

Italy

Last year's 7.4% budget deficit was the highest in the EU. So, Italy also faces EU disciplinary measures. Rome aims to lower the deficit to 4.3% this year, but it looks like impossible task. Home renovation incentives costing over 200 billion euros since 2020 will put upward pressure on Italian debt for years. The EU executives expect debt rising to 168% of GDP by 2034.

Japan

Japan's public debt stands at more than twice its economy, but the foreign investors, ready to flee at the first signs of stress, hold just about 6.5% of the country's government bonds. There are still some reasons for concern. Japan faces more than a two-fold increase in annual interest payments on government debt, and any sudden jump in Japanese bond yields as monetary policy normalizes may hurt Japanese banks and economy.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.