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Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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08.09.2025
Market Heavyweights Signal Fed Pivot Ahead
Market Heavyweights Signal Fed Pivot Ahead
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This week, market experts weighed in on rates, yields, and risks with unusually direct language. The consensus across leading managers is that Fed cuts are coming - but the path will be cautious. Bonds, especially investment-grade and intermediate maturities, look increasingly attractive. Equities may wobble into September, but cutting cycles tend to support markets. The only question is: which side of the trade will you be on?

BlackRock’s Rick Rieder: Fed Should Move Now. BlackRock’s global fixed income CIO called for a 50 bps Fed cut after softer jobs data, citing a “stuck” housing market. Following the US August payroll release - just 22,000 jobs added, far below expectations - Rick Rieder noted, “The labor market’s starting to freeze,” and added: “The Fed will be justified in moving to cut policy rates and we wouldn’t be surprised if they chose to move more aggressively from here.”

Trade implications: longer-dated Treasuries and investment-grade bonds may benefit. Mortgage-sensitive REITs and homebuilders could see relief. Consider gradually laddering into bonds instead of keeping assets in money-market funds.

UBS Sees Multi-Meeting Easing Cycle Ahead. UBS’s CIO argued softer labor demand and Fed minutes support easing. Inflation risks remain, but employment weakness is the bigger worry. In their note, UBS’s Chief Investment Office assessed July’s PCE data (core at 2.9%, headline at 2.6%, both in line) and noted, “While still above the Fed’s 2% target, July’s inflation data suggest price pressures are not accelerating enough to prevent rate cuts.” They also emphasized labor risk: “A softening labor market could provide scope to resume easing”. UBS team expects 100bps of cuts over the next four meetings, starting in September.

Trade implications: a multi-meeting rate-cut sequence argues for a balanced portfolio. Retail investors should consider high-quality fixed income and gold, while keeping some inflation hedges (TIPS, commodities) in case disinflation wobbles.

Deutsche Bank CEO: Yields Expose Reform Deficit. At a Handelsblatt-organized conference, Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing noted that the recent sell-off in long-dated bonds isn’t just a temporary spike. He believes that bond yields are likely to remain elevated in the months ahead, citing factors such as a lack of meaningful reforms in the global economy and heavy issuance of long-maturity government securities.

Trade implications: be cautious with very long-duration sovereigns in fiscally stressed regions; consider short and intermediate bond exposure, or quality corporates. Keep some cash ready for spread-widening opportunities.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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