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Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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10.09.2025
What the Gilt Yield Spike Means for Investors
What the Gilt Yield Spike Means for Investors
24

The surge in UK government bond yields has caught the market’s attention, with 30-year gilts touching levels unseen for nearly three decades. Understanding what lies behind this move is crucial for anyone exposed to UK assets.

UK government bond markets were under intense pressure last week. The 30-year gilt yield surged to around 5.72%, its highest level since 1998, before easing slightly to 5.54%. The 10-year benchmark followed suit, peaking near 4.82% before retracing to about 4.65%. Shorter maturities, such as the 2-year, have also remained elevated at roughly 4.3-4.4%. The steepening of the gilt curve highlights a shift in market psychology. While near-term rates are anchored by Bank of England policy expectations, investors are demanding a much higher risk premium to hold long-dated debt.

Historical yield UK Gilts in %

This is partly a reflection of fiscal uncertainty and doubts about whether the government can present a credible plan to stabilise public finances in its autumn Budget. The BoE’s quantitative tightening programme has also removed a key source of demand from the gilt market, amplifying selling pressure.

The Debt Management Office has already shifted issuance toward shorter maturities (up to 7 years), implicitly acknowledging the difficulty of selling long bonds into a nervous market.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has tried to calm nerves, stressing that while long yields have spiked, shorter-term borrowing costs remain relatively stable, and overall issuance costs are not spiralling out of control. But persistent inflation around 4%, higher than in many peer economies, limits the Bank of England’s flexibility to cut rates, reinforcing elevated long-term yields.

Bondfish opinion

Bond investors may prefer to tilt toward intermediate maturities (5-10 years), which capture attractive yields without the extreme risk of long bonds. Relative value trades - such as being long UK gilts against French OATs or German Bunds - may also appeal, given how much UK risk premiums have widened. But they certainly should avoid excessive concentration in the 20-30-year segment until fiscal clarity improves.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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