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22.12.2025
Will Japan’s Monetary Normalization Begin to Bite?
Will Japan’s Monetary Normalization Begin to Bite?
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Japan has taken another step away from the ultra-loose monetary policy that defined its economy for decades. The latest rate increase highlights the growing divergence between Japan’s cautious normalization and the policy paths of other major central banks. The implications extend well beyond Tokyo, touching U.S. Treasuries, European debt, and global risk sentiment.

Last week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its key short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level since the mid-1990s in a clear break from decades of near-zero and negative interest rate policy. This decision marked the fourth rate increase under Governor Kazuo Ueda. While the increase was widely expected and priced into markets, the BoJ stopped short of specifying a path to a neutral rate or committing to an aggressive tightening pace, instead emphasising a data-dependent approach that leaves the timing and extent of future hikes unclear.

In the currency markets, the yen initially weakened against the U.S. dollar following the announcement, even as the BoJ raised rates. Traders interpreted the central bank’s cautious guidance as signaling a gradual rather than rapid normalization cycle, reducing immediate support for the currency despite higher yields.

In the Japanese government bond (JGB) market, the rate hike pushed long-term yields higher, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising above 2% for the first time in many years. As domestic yields converge with international counterparts, the long-standing incentive for Japanese pension funds and insurers to hold foreign sovereign debt such as U.S. Treasuries or European government bonds diminishes, which could contribute to shifts in global fixed-income demand and relative valuation.

The impact on global bond markets has already begun to materialise. Yields on long-dated sovereign debt in Europe and elsewhere registered upticks as markets adjusted to the altered interest rate environment in Japan. Because Japanese investors have historically been major holders of overseas bonds, even marginal increases in domestic yields can influence global yield curves and capital flows.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.

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Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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