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Republic of Brazil 6.25% Mar 2031

Yield: 5.1%
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Bond information
Republic of Brazil
US105756CG37
Brazil Brazil
USD
Government/Municipal
6.25 %
Fixed
Semiannually
18-03-2026
20-11-2023
18-03-2031
200,000
2,000 mln
No
Premium
Senior
No
Next call date:
Next call price:
Market
as of 13-03-2026 17:30 CET
Bid Offer
Price, % 104.23 Firm price 105.03 Firm price
Yield, % 5.28 5.1
Deposit spread, % 3.95 3.77
Tenor, years 5.01
Duration 4.17
Brokers Premium
About Republic of Brazil
Brazil is one of the world's largest economies, ranking 11th by GDP (estimated at USD 2,3 trillion in 2025) with a population of around 211 million. The economy is predominantly driven by domestic demand rather than exports, which makes it less exposed to global trade shocks than many peers. Trade in goods and services accounts for about 36% of GDP (2024). China, Hong Kong and Macau are Brazil's largest export destination at around 29% of goods exports, followed by the EU at 14% and the United States at 12%. The country has attracted strong foreign direct investment, ranking 5th globally in 2023 with USD 65,9 billion in inflows. Since 2017, Brazil has passed a broad wave of structural reforms — covering labour, pensions, taxation, central bank autonomy and bankruptcy law — which helped lift average GDP growth from around 1,4% per year in 2017–2019 to 3,2% per year in 2022–2024. Real GDP grew 3,4% in 2024, and forecasts for 2025 point to around 2,5%, with a gradual convergence toward a 2% trend pace thereafter. The main credit concern for Brazil is its public finances. General government gross debt stood at 76,5% of GDP at end-2024 and is projected to reach around 79–84% of GDP by end-2025, on an upward path. The government runs wide overall fiscal deficits: the general government deficit (including interest payments) reached 6,6% of GDP in 2024 and is projected at around 8,0% of GDP in 2025, as sharply rising interest costs offset a narrowing primary deficit. The primary deficit itself fell to 0,4% of GDP in 2024. A key structural weakness is that around half of the federal public debt carries floating interest rates, meaning that when the central bank raises rates — as it did by 450 basis points to 15,0% in 2025 — interest costs on government debt rise quickly. The interest-to-revenue ratio is estimated to peak near 21% in 2025, up from around 15% in 2022. Spending rigidity — with a large share of mandatory outlays including social benefits — limits the government's room to cut expenditure and offset rising interest costs. Upcoming elections in October 2026 are expected to add further pressure on the spending side. Two important factors offset the fiscal risks. First, Brazil's external position is solid. Gross sovereign external debt was only about 9% of GDP in 2024, while foreign exchange reserves stood at around 16% of GDP — meaning the government is effectively a net external creditor. More than half of the gross sovereign external debt consists of domestic-currency bonds held by non-residents, so genuine hard-currency obligations are even lower. The current account deficit widened to 2,8% of GDP in 2024 but is fully covered by foreign direct investment inflows. Second, almost all public debt (around 95%) is issued in local currency and placed in a deep domestic market with a diversified investor base — financial institutions (32%), pension funds (23%), mutual funds (21%) and non-residents (11%) as of January 2026. The Treasury maintains a liquidity reserve of R$1.085 trillion, equivalent to 6,8 months of upcoming debt maturities. Average debt maturity stands at 4,0 years with only around 17% maturing within 12 months. Brazil's long-term foreign currency debt is rated BB by Fitch (stable outlook) and Ba1 by Moody's (stable outlook) — all in the sub-investment grade category, two notches below investment grade. publication date: 13-03-2026
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