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Turkey 5.875% May 2030

Yield: 4.34%
EUR
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Bond information
Turkey
XS2790222116
Türkiye Türkiye
EUR
Government/Municipal
5.88 %
Fixed
Annually
21-05-2026
21-03-2024
21-05-2030
100,000
2,000 mln
No
Premium
Senior
No
Next call date:
Next call price:
Market
as of 13-03-2026 17:30 CET
Bid Offer
Price, % 105.02 Firm price 105.77 Firm price
Yield, % 4.54 4.34
Deposit spread, % 2.84 2.64
Tenor, years 4.19
Duration 3.54
Brokers Premium
About Turkey
Türkiye is one of the largest emerging market economies in the world, ranked among the top 20 globally by GDP. Its economy is diversified across manufacturing, construction, trade, tourism, and financial services. Tourism is a notable strength — the country receives around 56–58 million visitors per year and earns roughly $56–58 billion annually from the sector. Exports of goods and services represent about 32–33% of GDP, with the EU absorbing the majority of outbound trade. The economy has a long-term average real growth rate of around 4,8–5,4% per year, though near-term growth has slowed as part of a deliberate policy adjustment, with real GDP expanding 3,2% in 2024 and expected to slow further to around 2,2–2,3% in 2025 before recovering toward 3,2–3,5% in 2026. Since mid-2023, the government has pursued a tight monetary and fiscal policy aimed at unwinding a severe inflation and balance-of-payments crisis. Inflation peaked near 75% in 2024 and has since fallen to around 31–35%, with projections pointing to roughly 20–30% by end-2025 and 19–20% by end-2026 — still among the highest of any rated sovereign. The central bank raised its policy rate by 41,5 percentage points to 50% and has gradually started easing. A key achievement has been reducing the dollarisation of deposits: the share of foreign currency and FX-protected deposits fell from 73% of total deposits in mid-2023 to around 39% by 2025, which helped rebuild central bank reserves. Gross FX reserves rose to around $205 billion by early 2026, while net reserves excluding swaps recovered to approximately $78 billion from a deeply negative position in early 2024. Government debt is low by international standards — around 25–27% of GDP as of 2024–2025, roughly half the median for similarly rated peers. The general government deficit narrowed to an estimated 2,9% of GDP in 2025, down from about 5,1% in 2024, outperforming expectations. However, foreign currency debt still represents around 53% of central government debt as of end-2025 (down from 64% in 2023), making public finances sensitive to lira depreciation. The current account deficit has narrowed sharply, from a peak of 5,2% of GDP in 2022 to around 0,8–1,4% in 2024–2025, reducing external pressure. That said, short-term external debt remains high relative to reserves, and external liquidity — measured as liquid external assets versus short-term external liabilities — stood at around 80% at end-2024, below the median of similarly rated countries. The key risk for Türkiye is a potential reversal of current economic policies. The country has a history of political interference in monetary policy, episodes of rapid credit-fuelled growth, and recurring external crises. Governance indicators remain weak, with Türkiye ranking at the 31st percentile on World Bank governance measures. Elections are not scheduled until 2028, which provides a window for continued policy discipline, but political pressures — including wage expectations and social costs of disinflation — could test that commitment. A return to loose policy would quickly reignite inflation and pressure on the lira and reserves. Türkiye's long-term foreign currency credit ratings are: S&P BB- (stable outlook), Moody's Ba3 (stable outlook), Fitch BB- (positive outlook). publication date: 13-03-2026
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