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Mexico 5.125% May 2037

Yield: 5.11%
EUR
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Bond information
Mexico
XS2991917613
Mexico Mexico
EUR
Government/Municipal
5.13 %
Fixed
Annually
04-05-2026
04-02-2025
04-05-2037
100,000
1,000 mln
No
Premium
Senior
Yes
Next call date:
04-02-2037
Next call price:
100
Market
as of 13-03-2026 17:30 CET
Bid Offer
Price, % 99.11 Firm price 100.15 Firm price
Yield, % 5.23 5.11
Deposit spread, % 4.38 4.26
Tenor, years 11.15
Duration 7.99
Brokers Premium
About Mexico
Mexico is one of Latin America's largest and most diversified economies, with a long track record of prudent fiscal and monetary management. Its central bank operates independently and has maintained credible inflation targeting over many years, keeping inflation at 3,8% as of early 2025. The economy benefits from deep integration with the United States — exports to its northern neighbour represented around 27% of GDP in 2024 — and from a growing manufacturing base that has attracted supply-chain relocation investments from global companies. A flexible exchange rate and USD 237 billion in international reserves, supplemented by a USD 36 billion IMF credit line, provide meaningful buffers against external shocks. The fiscal position has weakened in recent years and is the main credit concern. The broad government deficit reached 5,7% of GDP in 2024, up from 3,6% in 2023, driven by large public infrastructure projects, higher social spending, rising interest costs, and ongoing losses at state oil company Pemex, which receives government support of around USD 7 billion per year. Gross general government debt rose to around 50,9% of GDP in 2024, compared to 45,5% in 2023, and is projected to reach approximately 54% in 2025. Interest payments absorbed around 15–16% of government revenues in recent years, up from roughly 10% before the pandemic. The government is targeting a reduction in the deficit to around 3,9% of GDP in 2025, mainly through cuts in capital expenditure and operating costs. The economy faces a difficult near-term outlook. Real GDP grew only 1,5% in 2024 and a mild contraction of around 0,4% is expected in 2025, as US trade tariffs, domestic fiscal tightening, and broader uncertainty weigh on activity. The USMCA trade agreement is due for review in mid-2026, which adds further unpredictability for exporters and investors. Recent constitutional reforms — including changes to the judiciary and the dismantling of independent regulatory bodies — have raised concerns about the business environment and institutional checks and balances, which could weigh on private investment over the medium term. Mexico's government debt is predominantly denominated in local currency and issued domestically. As of December 2025, domestic debt consisted mainly of fixed-rate Bonos M (38,2% of domestic issuance), inflation-linked Udibonos (30,2%), short-term Cetes (15,9%), and floating-rate Bondes F (13,7%). External debt relies on international capital markets for around 81,9% of its foreign borrowing. The current account deficit was just 0,4% of GDP in 2024 and is largely covered by foreign direct investment, which limits reliance on more volatile portfolio flows. Mexico's foreign currency bonds are rated BBB- by Fitch (Stable outlook), and Baa2 by Moody's (Negative outlook). publication date: 13-03-2026
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