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Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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06.10.2025
As Stocks Look Overvalued, May Investors Turn to Bonds for Balance?
As Stocks Look Overvalued, May Investors Turn to Bonds for Balance?
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The world’s top market voices, from Jerome Powell to David Solomon and Michael Hartnett, are suddenly talking about overvalued stocks and the risk of a pullback. Their tone has shifted from cautious optimism to open warning, and their comments form a rare consensus across policy, banking, and strategy desks. If stocks really are nearing a turning point, could bonds soon regain their role as investors’ safest source of returns?

US policy and market leaders have been flagging a clear risk: equity valuations look rich and a pullback cannot be ruled out. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underlined this plainly: “By many measures, for example, equity prices are fairly highly valued,” said Powell recently at an appearance in Rhode Island.

This observation lines up with a suite of valuation indicators that are at or near historic highs. For example, the Shiller CAPE is near its dot-com peak, the S&P 500 forward P/E sits around 22.2x, and market-cap-to-GDP (the “Buffett indicator”) is at record levels. Bank of America finds 19 of 20 valuation metrics show the market is historically expensive.

Wall Street figures have been sounding similar notes in public forums. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warned at Italian Tech Week that the current AI-driven rally contains familiar elements of past technology cycles and that a correction could follow: “I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next 12 to 24 months, we see a drawdown with respect to equity markets,” he said, adding that “there will be a lot of capital that’s deployed that will turn out to not deliver returns, and when that happens people won’t feel good.” 

Last week, Bank of America’s chief strategist Michael Hartnett reiterated that fund managers’ surveys show elevated bullishness and low cash buffers, noting concentration in growth/AI trades and flagging that history often shows those extremes precede corrections.

What would a meaningful equity pullback likely do to bond markets? Historically, broad equity weakness triggers a classic “risk-off” move: investors flee to high-quality sovereigns and core credit, pushing Treasury yields down (prices up). At the same time, corporate credit spreads tend to widen - especially for lower-rated bonds - as liquidity and risk appetite evaporate, which hurts HY performance even while pushing safe-haven Treasuries prices higher.

Bondfish opinion

So, bond investors may prepare for the equity market pullback by: (1) increasing exposure to high-quality sovereigns and investment-grade bonds or ETFs to benefit from potential flight-to-quality rallies; (2) adding duration (longer Treasuries or a long-duration ETF) tactically, because yields typically fall in risk-off episodes; (3) reducing allocations to lower-quality HY and illiquid corporate issues.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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