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Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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13.10.2025
As Tariff Risks Rise, Could Bunds Be the Smart Money’s Next Move?
As Tariff Risks Rise, Could Bunds Be the Smart Money’s Next Move?
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The unexpected return of trade tensions between the U.S. and China sent shockwaves through global markets last week. While equities stumbled, safe-haven bonds surged, and investors are once again rethinking duration exposure as volatility rises. Here’s why you may see this week as a timely opportunity to revisit long-dated German debt.

The markets were jolted on Friday after news spread of Trump’s proposed 100% tariff on Chinese imports. That aggressive escalation in trade tensions triggered a surge of safe-haven demand: U.S. Treasury yields plunged (across the curve, declines of 5-7 basis points were reported) as equities tumbled, and European sovereign bonds rallied in step. In Germany, the 10-year Bund yield slipped from the upper end of its recent range (around 2.70%) down toward 2.63% by the close.

Analysts quickly interpreted the move as a reflection of heightened fears over global growth disruption. Some commentary suggests that markets are now pricing in a more pronounced “downside shock” scenario for industrial demand and trade volumes, which in turn pushes investors into high-quality sovereigns.

So, there is scope for further rally in long-dated German Bunds. If risk aversion deepens, 10- to 30-year Bund yields could conceivably fall at least another 20 bps from current levels toward a 2.40% floor seems plausible. That range would imply a meaningful capital gain for long-duration holders (2%-4% price moves, depending on coupon and maturity).

The fact that many institutional investors remain underweight ultra-long Bunds suggests there’s room for fresh inflows should volatility persist. Moreover, the ECB is unlikely to pivot hawkishly in this environment, which reinforces the asymmetric upside case.

Bondfish opinion

We suppose a tactical buy in long-dated Bunds this week can make sense. It’s not a call to go “all in” on duration, but rather to allocate a modest tilt toward long Bunds as a buffer against further turbulence. If the tariff rhetoric abates, yields could reverse. But as a “safe journey buffer” during uncertain times, long-dated Bunds seem to offer an asymmetric trade: limited downside if things calm, and meaningful upside if risk aversion escalates.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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