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01.12.2025
BIS Warns of Rising Hedge-Fund Leverage in Sovereign-Bond Markets
BIS Warns of Rising Hedge-Fund Leverage in Sovereign-Bond Markets
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Government-bond markets are often seen as the safest part of the financial system, but new research from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) suggests the foundation may be less stable than assumed. Leveraged basis and arbitrage trades have grown to a size that can influence price dynamics during periods of stress. May these imbalances turn into systemic problems?

Last week, the BIS, an umbrella body for central banks, issued a stark warning about the rising leverage of hedge funds (and other non-bank financial institutions) in sovereign-bond markets, flagging it as a growing risk to global financial stability. The alert delivered by its General Manager Pablo Hernández de Cos points out that a large share of bilateral repurchase-agreements (repos), the tool many hedge funds use to borrow cheaply against government bonds, are executed with zero collateral “haircut.”

Specifically, about 70% of U.S. dollar-denominated bilateral repos involving hedge funds and roughly 50% of euro-denominated repos are offered at zero haircut, leaving few market constraints on leverage. The strategies such as cash-futures basis trades, yield curve arbitrage or swap-spread arbitrage - which exploit small price differences or inefficiencies - have become more common and more aggressive. With government-debt levels in advanced economies projected to rise substantially, the amount of sovereign bonds outstanding will grow, increasing the pool of collateral available for such leveraged strategies.

The concern is not just academic. History has shown how leveraged basis trades can destabilise markets: margin calls triggered by sudden interest-rate or yield shifts forced large-scale unwinds during the 2021 U.S. Treasury volatility episode, contributing to sharp price swings and liquidity strains.

In response, BIS recommends stronger structural safeguards. Chief among them: broader use of central clearing (rather than bilateral repos), standardised minimum haircuts on repos involving sovereign-bond collateral, and tighter oversight of non-bank financial intermediation. Without such measures, what now may look like efficient arbitrage could turn into a structural vulnerability amid rising public debt.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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