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12.01.2026
Bond market outlook for 2026
Bond market outlook for 2026
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Summary

In 2026, bond markets are mainly shaped by how fast and how far central banks change interest rates. Inflation is no longer the main unknown. Instead, the focus is on policy direction.

Our view is constructive for bonds, but with different preferred maturities depending on the currency:

  • USD bonds: We see 2026 as favorable for short and medium tenors, roughly 2–7 years.
  • EUR bonds: We see value in medium and long tenors, roughly 5–10 years.
  • GBP bonds: We prefer short and medium tenors, roughly 2–7 years.

Across all regions, yield curves remain steep, meaning longer maturities offer noticeably higher yields than short-term instruments.

In this article, we explain the reasoning behind these views and include a short “bond basics” section to clarify why interest-rate movements matter for bond returns.

Note: you don’t need to hold bonds until maturity. You can sell them at any time, especially if their prices go up.

United States (USD)

US government yield curve (9 Jan 2026)

The US enters 2026 with an interest rate of 3,75%. This is still a high level compared with the current inflation rate.

Our view is that the Federal Reserve will cut rates clearly during 2026, bringing the policy rate to around 2,50% by the end of the year.

Main factors driving this view

  • Inflation: price growth has slowed and is now close to 2,5%, far below the levels seen in recent years.
  • Labor market: hiring has cooled and unemployment is expected to remain around 4,4–4,5%.
  • Borrowing costs: interest rates are still high compared with inflation, which weighs on economic activity.
  • Policy preferences: the current US administration supports lower interest rates to encourage growth, investment and government financing.
  • Institutional change: a change in Federal Reserve leadership during 2026 makes a faster adjustment of policy more likely once inflation is no longer a concern.

Impact on bonds

  • Current 10Y US Treasury yield: 4,1%
  • Our end-2026 view: 3,6-3,8%

Why this happens

  • When the central bank cuts short-term rates, investors expect lower interest rates in the future.
  • Bonds with maturities of 2–7 years react first, because they are closely linked to policy rates.
  • In the US case, this effect is strong enough to pull the 10-year yield lower, even though government borrowing will remain high.

Important for non-US bond holders

  • Lower US interest rates make the US dollar cheaper over time.
  • For investors based outside the US, currency movements can reduce returns if USD exposure is not hedged.

Euro area (EUR)

Germany government yield curve (9 Jan 2026)

The ECB enters 2026 with its deposit rate at 2,00%.

Our expectation is simple: the ECB is likely to keep rates unchanged throughout 2026.

Main factors driving this view

  • Inflation: expected around 1,9–2,2%, close to the ECB’s goal.
  • Growth: slow but stable, around 1,1–1,3%.
  • Policy approach: the ECB prefers stability once rates reach a neutral level.
  • Bond issuance: governments will issue more bonds, but less aggressively than in the US or UK.
  • Changes in pension systems, including in the Netherlands, may affect markets slowly over time, but we do not expect sudden selling of bonds. You may read here for more details.

Impact on bonds

  • Current 10Y German bunds yield: 2,9%
  • Our end-2026 view: 3,0-3,1%

Why this happens

  • Because the ECB is not cutting rates, there is no strong downward force on yields.
  • Governments continue issuing bonds to finance spending.
  • As a result, investors ask for slightly higher yields on long-term bonds.
  • The difference between short-term and long-term rates is already large and long-term yields already include compensation for risk. This limits how much further yields are likely to rise.

United Kingdom (GBP)

UK government yield curve (9 Jan 2026)

The UK starts 2026 with a policy rate of 3,75%.

We expect the Bank of England to cut rates modestly, bringing them to around 3,25% by the end of the year. Cuts are likely to happen mainly in the first half of 2026.

Main factors driving this view

  • Inflation: expected to average around 2,5%, still higher than in the euro area.
  • Growth: weak to moderate, around 1,0–1,2%.
  • Policy stance:  lower rates slowly and avoid aggressive cuts.

Impact on bonds

  • Current 10Y gilt yield: 4,4%
  • Our end-2026 view: 4,5-4,6%

Why this happens

  • Rate cuts support short-term bonds.
  • However, the UK government continues to borrow heavily.
  • Investors therefore demand slightly higher yields for long-term bonds to compensate for this risk.

Summary table – our 2026 bond view

RegionPolicy rate nowPolicy rate end-202610Y yield now10Y yield end-2026
US 3,75% 2,50% 4,1% 3,6–3,8%
Euro area 2,00% 2,00% 2,9% 3,0–3,1%
UK 3,75% 3,25% 4,4% 4,5–4,6%

How bonds work

If you hold a bond until maturity, you know in advance what you will earn each year. This rate is called the Yield.

If you plan to sell the bond before it matures, your total return may differ from the Yield.

A bond’s total return consists of two parts:

  1. Coupon: The regular interest payment you receive for holding the bond.
  2. Price Change: The bond’s value can go up or down depending on market conditions.

The most important factor influencing bond prices is monetary policy. Remember:

  • If interest rates go down, bond prices typically go up ­, benefiting investors—especially for bonds with longer maturities.
  • If interest rates go up, bond prices generally go down¯, reducing returns.

Read here to learn more about why bond prices change (in English only).

Key Takeaways:

  1. If you invest in a bond and intend to hold it until maturity, focus on the Yield and ensure the issuer remains solvent until maturity.
  2. You can earn more than the stated Yield if you correctly predict future interest rate movements and sell the bond before maturity.
  3. You can earn less than the stated Yield if you incorrectly predict future interest rate movements and sell the bond before maturity. In that sense the long-term bonds are more risky than shorter term bonds.
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.

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