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28.01.2026
Can Europe Really Shake the U.S. Treasury Market?
Can Europe Really Shake the U.S. Treasury Market?
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The idea that Europe could reduce its exposure to U.S. assets has shifted from abstract theory to headline discussion. Officials rushed to dismiss it, while markets became thoughtful. Foreign ownership has long been a pillar of demand for U.S. government debt, rarely questioned outside specialist circles. But a single research note from a major global bank was enough to spark debate.

In mid-January, George Saravelos, Global Head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank, sparked controversy with an analytical note suggesting that European investors could - in a worst-case geopolitical scenario - reduce their holdings of U.S. financial assets, which he valued at roughly $8 trillion across bonds and equities.

Saravelos highlighted Europe’s sizeable stake in U.S. dollar-denominated assets and argued that deteriorating confidence in the western alliance - amplified by trade and geopolitical tensions - might prompt a shift away from dollar exposure. He pointed to movements by some pension funds in Denmark as an example of dollar rebalancing and warned that U.S. reliance on foreign financing to fund deficits could make credit markets vulnerable.

The commentary was seized on by Financial Times and market commentators as a hypothetical “Sell America” trade, especially in the context of President Donald Trump’s aggressive stance over Greenland and threats of tariffs on European NATO members.

Political reactions were swift. Donald Trump warned that any significant sell-off of U.S. government debt by European holders would lead to “big retaliation,” claiming that the United States “has all the cards” in such a dispute. At the same time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly dismissed the idea of a coordinated European divestment as exaggerated “fake news”. In response to the controversy, Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing contacted Bessent and distanced the bank’s management from Saravelos’s note, clarifying that independent research does not necessarily reflect official policy.

Data from Citi shows that Europe was responsible for about 80 percent of foreign purchases of U.S. Treasuries between April and November 2025, illustrating continued strong demand rather than wholesale selling - and that only a relatively small portion of those holdings is directly attributable to European official portfolios. But though a massive coordinated sale of U.S. Treasuries by European investors is highly unlikely, we suppose that the idea of trimming the U.S. dollar-nominated assets, both bonds and stocks, deserves attention.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.

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Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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