Home Bond screener Top picks Pricing Readings About
Back
08.12.2025
December Fed Rate Cut Now Base Scenario for Major Banks
December Fed Rate Cut Now Base Scenario for Major Banks
29

After months of policy uncertainty, global bank strategists are rapidly converging on a new outlook for U.S. interest rates. A few weeks ago, a December rate cut was still uncertain - now it is fast becoming the base case for many global banks. Attention is already shifting toward what 2026 might bring and how deep any easing could run. Treasury yields are oscillating, so will the bond market become a boring place next year?

Global-bank analysts over the last week have increasingly aligned around the view that Federal Reserve will deliver a 25 bps rate cut at its December 9-10 meeting. Morgan Stanley, which had previously expected rates to be held steady, reversed course, citing softer labor-market signals and dovish messaging from top Fed officials. That comes as its economists recognize that the prior “no-cut” call seems outdated. Morgan Stanley now models two additional 25 bps cuts by April 2026, to reach a range of 3.00-3.25%.

Meanwhile, Bank of America Global Research reaffirmed its December-cut call and projects two further cuts in 2026, though its timing (June and July) is a bit later. Goldman Sachs Research continues to forecast a December cut as well, with further easing in 2026 bringing the fed funds rate down to a terminal range of 3.00–3.25%. Their baseline path foresees a pause in January, then resumption of cuts in March and June 2026.

The outlook for 2026 remains subject to contingencies. Goldman notes that if economic growth reaccelerates or inflation picks up again, the Fed may slow or halt the easing cycle. Overall, the consensus among banks and strategists suggests a gradual easing cycle in 2026 rather than a rapid, deep rate-cutting path - with perhaps two to three total 25 bps cuts over the next 12-18 months, depending on economic developments.

Last week U.S. Treasury yields “relaxed,” reflecting the growing confidence in an imminent Fed cut, but after a dip, ticked back up toward 4.15%. Median forecasts expect the 10-year yield to stay near 4.10% in the short-term, rising modestly to 4.25 % in a year. Strategists at JPMorgan Chase have a slightly more “hawkish” view: they expect the 10-year Treasury yield to climb to 4.35% by the end of next year.

Bondfish opinion

Treasuries have returned more than 6% this year, on course for their best annual performance since 2020, but we don’t expect that they will replicate this year’s strong performance in 2026. Treasury bonds may remain “boring but stable” next year, with limited upside on price. But for conservative investors, locking in current yields could make sense, if they rise slightly more.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.

Readings

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
Translate
Warning! The translation is automatic and may contain errors.