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26.01.2026
From Zero to Four Percent: Japan’s Yield Shock Explained
From Zero to Four Percent: Japan’s Yield Shock Explained
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Japan’s government bond market has entered unfamiliar territory as yields climb to levels unseen for decades. For investors accustomed to viewing JGBs as stable and predictable, the recent moves raise important questions about portfolio allocation. Elevated yields may present opportunities, but they also come with new risks. The question is no longer whether Japan matters, but how much.

Last week Japanese government bond yields climbed to unprecedented levels, with ultra-long maturities such as the 40-year JGB moving above 4.2 percent - the highest since those tenors were introduced in 2007. This spike was accompanied by sharp increases across the curve, with 30-year yields near record highs and the benchmark 10-year rate also climbing to levels not seen in nearly three decades.

Market participants interpreted these moves as a sell-off triggered in part by political and fiscal concerns domestically, notably Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proposed fiscal stimulus and tax-cut plans ahead of a snap February election, which investors fear will expand Japan’s already significant public debt burden. The weak demand in recent auctions for longer-dated bonds amplified the move.

Several global banking analysts have linked the yield surge to shifts in monetary policy expectations. With inflation persistently above target and the BoJ having raised its policy rate to levels not seen in decades, markets are increasingly pricing in further tightening.

A sustained rise in yields tends to attract foreign capital into yen-denominated assets. Some global portfolio managers are already discussing re-allocating capital back into Japanese debt to capture these higher returns, particularly if volatility stabilises. At the same time, analysts warn that continued fiscal expansion without offsetting reforms could exert pressure on bond prices and investor confidence. Citadel CEO Ken Griffin have even suggested that the Japanese bond sell-off serves as a cautionary signal to other advanced economies about the risks of fiscal imbalance.

The consequences of higher Japanese yields extend beyond Tokyo. Higher yields improve the return profile of JGBs and may attract renewed interest from long-term buyers, supporting the Japanese currency after years of weakness. For the global bond market, it means that Japanese yields may play a more active role in determining global capital flows and currency valuations.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.

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Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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