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Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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11.08.2025
Investors Bet on Fed Action as Trade Worries Recede
Investors Bet on Fed Action as Trade Worries Recede
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Tariffs are yesterday’s news. Investors have turned their gaze to a far more immediate drama - slowing job growth, cooling inflation, and the prospect of rate cuts. But is this shift in focus a sign of market savvy or a dangerous case of selective blindness?

In a notable pivot, bond investors appear increasingly focused on the trajectory of U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s policy path, sidelining concerns over tariffs that dominated headlines earlier in the year.

A Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey this month revealed a marked decline in the proportion of respondents citing trade tensions as their top risk. Instead, attention has turned to the cooling U.S. labor market, moderating inflation, and the likelihood of a September rate cut. The shift is partly driven by expectations that the Fed will respond to softer job growth - July payroll gains came in well below forecasts - by easing policy sooner rather than later.

Major banks echo the sentiment. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley highlight that the bond market’s rally in recent weeks owes more to rate-cut optimism than to trade developments. UBS notes that the market’s current pricing - reflecting up to 75 bps of easing by year-end - signals confidence that policy support will underpin growth.

Still, some analysts warn that ignoring tariffs entirely could be premature. Barclays cautions that lingering trade frictions, particularly if enforcement tightens or new measures are introduced, could re-ignite stagflation risks. Goldman Sachs adds that while tariffs have faded as a headline driver, their indirect effects - through supply chain adjustments and corporate margin pressures - could re-emerge in data later this year.

For now, the bond market narrative is being written in the language of payrolls, inflation prints, and Fed speeches. Tariffs may not be gone from the stage, but they’ve been relegated to a supporting role - at least until the next geopolitical twist pushes them back into the spotlight.

Bondfish opinion

We see the current U.S. macro backdrop as aligning in favour of fixed-income investors. The combination of cooling job growth, moderating inflation, and clear political incentives for the Federal Reserve to ease policy strengthens the case for rate cuts in the near term.

At the same time, recent U.S. trade and investment agreements – such as the U.S.-Japan and the US-EU deals – are set to inject substantial capital into strategic industries, bolster productivity, and underpin economic growth without relying solely on domestic monetary stimulus. This mix of supportive policy pressure and long-term growth capital creates a compelling environment for U.S. Treasuries and high-quality corporate bonds.

While risks remain, we believe the balance of factors argues for selectively adding U.S. bonds at current yields, positioning ahead of potential Fed easing and the economic tailwinds from these strategic deals.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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