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Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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18.08.2025
Spaghetti Meets Baguette: Debt Costs on the Same Plate
Spaghetti Meets Baguette: Debt Costs on the Same Plate
25

Once upon a time, France was the teacher’s pet and Italy was the troublemaker. Now, the bond market has flipped the script: Paris is paying nearly as much as Rome to borrow. Italy, once the poster child of eurozone debt risk, is being rewarded for fiscal discipline, while France finds itself under mounting scrutiny. For fixed-income investors, it’s not just a spread story — it’s a sign that eurozone “core” and “periphery” may need a re-label.

As of early June, the France-Italy 10-year government bond yield spread was around 0.84%, but by early August, it had narrowed sharply to 0.29%, reaching levels not seen since before the euro debt crisis. This week, France’s long-term borrowing costs surged further, pushing 10-year yields above 3 percent. This brought the premium over Italian yields to a mere 0.14 percentage points.

France-Italy 10-year government bond yield spread

France continues to grapple with mounting public debt. Its debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 118% by 2026, while Moody’s downgraded its credit rating in December and maintained a negative outlook. “It’s the change in debt levels that matters,” said Mike Riddell, fund manager at Fidelity International. “France continues to run big budget deficits and is a deteriorating credit risk.” Pierre Moscovici, head of France’s national auditor, notes that “out of the €3.4 trillion of public debt, more than €1 trillion has been generated during the last five years.”

In contrast, Italy’s political stability and adherence to fiscal discipline have eased investor concerns. The Italian government is on track to reduce its budget deficit below the EU’s 3 percent threshold. Barclays strategist Rohan Khanna summed it up by noting that peripheral countries are now “politically calm,” while “all the political noise and chaos has moved to the core markets.”

Bondfish opinion

We believe that this yields convergence signals shifting market views: the long-standing perception of France as a “safe haven” in the eurozone is challenged, and traditional divide between safe “core” and fragile “periphery” countries is now rapidly blurring. In our opinion, Italian bonds should not currently be considered riskier than French bonds, nor French bonds safer than Italian ones. Keep this in mind when building your investment portfolio.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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