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Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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25.08.2025
The Fragile Balance: Growth Hopes vs. Inflation Fears
The Fragile Balance: Growth Hopes vs. Inflation Fears
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Why are markets acting like they expect both a boom and a bust at the same time? Deutsche Bank strategist Henry Allen suggests that the seemingly bizarre combination of record-high equities and bond markets pricing in Fed rate cuts isn’t madness at all - it might be the market’s way of preparing for two possible futures at once: cheering optimism while secretly hedging against disaster.

The stock and bond markets are telling two different stories now. On the one hand, equity markets are hitting record highs and corporate bond spreads are at their tightest versus U.S. Treasurys since 1998, signaling strong optimism. On the other, government bond markets are pricing in aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, as if preparing for a sharp slowdown. Deutsche Bank strategist Henry Allen described this last week as a “great market paradox.”

Allen proposes that this contradiction is resolvable if growth accelerates in H2 of 2025. If rate cuts don’t happen because inflation remains elevated, markets could falter—but if cuts don’t come due to unexpectedly robust growth, risk assets might continue to prosper. In this balanced outlook, inflation stands as the key risk. The current elevated one-year inflation swap rate (around 3.3%) shows that markets are at least aware of this danger—even amid optimism.

A recent Bank of America Global Research survey found that 70% of institutional investors now expect stagflation—a scenario combining sluggish growth and elevated inflation—within the next 12 months. For many, this is the dominant macro risk on the horizon. As a result, investors are increasingly turning to inflation-sensitive instruments such as short-dated inflation-linked bonds, inflation swaps, and gold as hedges.

Bondfish opinion

While many investors focus on stagflation risks, we take a more constructive view. In our opinion, the success of recent U.S. trade and investment agreements, coupled with the potential for substantial infrastructure spending and productivity gains, supports a more optimistic outlook for American economic growth. Against this backdrop, we favor investments in mid- and long-term corporate and government bonds, which should benefit from both resilient growth and eventual monetary easing.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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