Readings

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
Back
13.08.2025
The Long End of the Curve Has Trust Issues
The Long End of the Curve Has Trust Issues
32

Investors love to talk about rate cuts, but last week’s Treasury market jitter told a different story. Weak auction demand and rising term premiums hint at deeper worries - about deficits, supply, and who will buy America’s debt. It’s a small move for now, but could these cracks widen into a challenge for Washington’s borrowing machine?

The past week brought a reminder that not all is calm in U.S. fixed income markets. Despite upbeat sentiment in equities and credit, a mid-week $42 billion 10-year Treasury auction drew tepid interest, with a higher-than-expected tail and weaker bid-to-cover ratio.

The term premium - the extra yield investors require for the risk of holding long-maturity bonds - has been trending upward in recent sessions, reversing part of the decline seen earlier this year.

Analysts at Barclays called the result “a sobering signal” that investors are demanding more compensation for holding longer-dated debt.

JPMorgan strategists link this to a combination of fiscal concerns, shifting inflation expectations, and uncertainty over the Fed’s policy path. Even with a potential rate-cut cycle in view, they warn that structural factors, such as heavy issuance and diminished foreign demand, could keep upward pressure on long-term yields.

Goldman Sachs adds that the market’s sensitivity to auction outcomes has increased since the Treasury Department’s quarterly refunding announcement in early August, which confirmed a ramp-up in longer-dated issuance. UBS notes that supply dynamics are now a bigger driver for Treasuries than short-term policy expectations.

For bond investors the takeaway is clear: the front end may benefit from easing, but the long end faces a rougher road.  While the Fed’s eventual easing could support short maturities, long-dated Treasuries remain at the mercy of supply, demand, and the shifting appetite for term risk.

Bondfish opinion

At Bondfish, we see the recent softness in long-end demand not as a sign of structural weakness in U.S. creditworthiness, but as a reflection of near-term supply dynamics, auction psychology, and the current level of yields. In our view, structural buyers for Treasuries remain — and could expand — as U.S. trade and investment agreements allied countries, such as the recent deals with Japan and the EU, bring fresh foreign capital into strategic industries and as policy tools are deployed to manage issuance without destabilizing the market.

The administration’s willingness to align trade negotiations with capital flows, secure guaranteed demand for critical sectors, and keep duration issuance flexible until rates are lower points toward an eventual environment where the long end can rally meaningfully. If rate cuts materialize — and we think political and economic incentives point in that direction — the curve is likely to shift down in parallel, with scope for catch-up performance in long maturities.

For now, the front end may be the cleaner beneficiary of early easing, but we see value in selectively positioning in the long end ahead of a potential pivot — particularly if forthcoming trade deals and funding arrangements increase confidence in Washington’s borrowing capacity.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
Translate
Warning! The translation is automatic and may contain errors.