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Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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04.08.2025
U.S. Jobs Hit “Pause”, Bond Investors Hit “Play”
U.S. Jobs Hit “Pause”, Bond Investors Hit “Play”
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U.S. job growth slowed sharply, sparking a dollar sell-off and boosting the euro. Weaker U.S. data opens room for both Fed and ECB rate cuts, so are eurozone bonds likely to attract growing demand from international investors?

The U.S. labor market stumbled in July, raising red flags for investors and accelerating speculation that the Federal Reserve could soon begin cutting rates.

According to data released on Friday, August 1, the U.S. economy added just 73,000 jobs, well below expectations (~110K) and sharply down from recent months. May and June job figures were revised downward by a combined 258,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. Despite strong wage growth (3.9% YoY), the report painted a clear picture: the job market is cooling faster than expected.

The market's response was swift. U.S. Treasury yields dropped sharply across the curve, with the 10-year falling below 4.10%, eurozone bonds followed suit. The odds of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting surged from about 38% pre‑data to as high as 80–85%. The EUR/USD exchange rate moved toward 1.16, and currency strategists are favoring long euro positions again.

Following the release of the report, Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have publicly stated that the recent labor market data strengthens the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut.

The European bond analysts highlighted that the softer U.S. data reduces pressure on the ECB to stay hawkish, paving the way for euro‑zone rate cuts and deeper demand for euro sovereign bonds, particularly at longer maturities.

Analysts covering global capital flows emphasized that eurozone bonds have benefitted not only from U.S. dollar weakness but also from broader risk-off sentiment. As global stock markets declined, and investors sought safety, yields on German Bunds and French OATs dropped, drawing more demand for euro assets.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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