
German 10-year yields rose 8 basis points to 3.60%, while two-year yields were unchanged. Business surveys for September came in stronger than expected, showing the euro area economy is coping with high energy prices. That keeps pressure on the European Central Bank, and markets now see roughly even odds of another rate rise in October. Swings in oil prices, including talk of a possible US ban on diesel exports, added to inflation worries. French bonds did worse than German ones. The gap between their 10-year yields hit its widest since 2012 after France raised its deficit forecast.

US Treasury yields jumped again, with the 10-year up 17 basis points to 5.16% and the 30-year at 5.49%. September business surveys were far stronger than expected, with the best reading since mid-2021, and fewer people claimed jobless benefits. This convinced investors that the Federal Reserve, which started raising rates this month, has more hikes to come. Markets now expect about four more. Lukewarm demand at Treasury auctions added to the pressure, and the five-year yield briefly topped 5% for the first time since 2007.

Short-dated UK yields barely moved, but longer gilts fell with the global sell-off. The 10-year yield rose 7 basis points to 5.36%, and the 30-year rose 10. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said it is getting harder to keep rates on hold. Markets now see a rate rise in November as very likely. UK business surveys were actually weaker than expected, and government borrowing in August came in above forecasts, which did not help long-dated gilts.

Medium-term government bonds now look attractive for patient investors who can ride out short-term swings, though there is no clear trigger for a rally yet.
Gains were modest in a tough week for bonds. The top of the list was led by euro bonds with low coupons that mature around 2030 and 2031. Swedish medical supplies group Mölnlycke rose about 2%, followed by Dutch housing investor Vesteda and German development bank KfW. In dollars, HAT Holdings, the funding arm of US climate investor HASI, gained 1.5%.
| Name | Cur | Price change 1w(%) |
Yield | Risk Level |
| Molnlycke Holding 0.625% Jan 2031 | EUR | 2,12% | 3,31% | Medium |
| Vesteda Finance 0.75% Oct 2031 | EUR | 1,93% | 3,72% | Low |
| Hat Hldg 1 3.75% Sep 2030 | USD | 1,53% | 5,53% | Medium |
| KFW 0.375% Apr 2030 | EUR | 1,38% | 3,10% | Very Low |
| Discovery Com 4.125% May 2029 | USD | 1,38% | 7,59% | High |
| EIB 0.25% Sep 2029 | EUR | 1,25% | 3,05% | Very Low |
| CoreWeave 9.25% Jun 2030 | USD | 1,11% | 11,12% | Very High |
| Starz Capital 5.5% Apr 2029 | USD | 1,01% | 11,04% | Very High |
| Slovenia 1.188% Mar 2029 | EUR | 0,87% | 2,91% | Low |
| Slovenia 0.275% Jan 2030 | EUR | 0,85% | 3,15% | Low |
The biggest fallers were mostly very long-dated US corporate bonds, which lose the most value when yields rise. Oracle's 2064 bond led the list with a drop of almost 5%, and Comcast's 2055 bond lost more than 4%. Paramount's 2032 bond fell 4.4% as the company lined up about $52 billion of new debt to pay for its takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery. Kyndryl fell in a week when it sold $1 billion of new bonds at yields close to 8%. In euros, Swedish property group Heimstaden dropped 4.6% as riskier European credit weakened.
| Name | Cur | Price change 1w(%) |
Yield | Risk Level |
| Oracle 5.5% Sep 2064 | USD | -4,76% | 8,16% | Medium |
| Heimstaden 7.361% Jan 2031 | EUR | -4,58% | 9,34% | Very High |
| Paramount Global 4.2% May 2032 | USD | -4,42% | 8,25% | High |
| Comcast 6.05% May 2055 | USD | -4,38% | 7,19% | Low |
| Kyndryl Holdings 4.1% Oct 2041 | USD | -4,10% | 7,89% | Medium |
| Oracle 5.375% Sep 2054 | USD | -3,93% | 8,12% | Medium |
| Charter Commn 6.484% Oct 2045 | USD | -3,90% | 8,16% | Medium |
| Glencore Fndg 3.375% Sep 2051 | USD | -3,90% | 6,51% | Medium |
| Mexico 5.75% Oct 2110 | USD | -3,90% | 7,67% | Medium |
| Oracle 6.125% Aug 2065 | USD | -3,85% | 8,25% | Medium |
Note: only long-term senior unsecured ratings were taken into account.
Upgrades outnumbered downgrades this week, 21 to 16. Fitch raised Asia-focused insurer Prudential to AA-, and S&P lifted Swiss skincare group Galderma to BBB+. Fitch also upgraded Sri Lanka to B-. On the downside, S&P cut Paramount Skydance to BB ahead of its debt-funded takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, and Moody's lowered packaging maker Mondi to Baa2.
| Issuer | Agency | Change |
| Advancion | S&P | CC → D |
| Air Baltic | Fitch | CC → D |
| Atlas CC | S&P | CCC → D |
| AZZ | S&P | BB- → BB |
| BAC International Bank | Fitch | BB+ → BBB- |
| Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego | Moody's | A2 → A3 |
| Bending Spoons | S&P | B+ → BB- |
| Berlinovo | S&P | A- → A |
| Bosideng | Moody's | Baa3 → Baa2 |
| Botswana | Moody's | Baa1 → Baa2 |
| Cable One | S&P | BB- → B+ |
| CITIC | Moody's | A3 → A2 |
| Digital Realty Trust | Moody's | Baa2 → Baa1 |
| Eversholt UK Rails | Fitch | BBB → BBB- |
| Galderma | S&P | BBB → BBB+ |
| HealthEquity | S&P | BB → BB+ |
| Hoya Midco | S&P | B- → CCC |
| Innio | Fitch | B+ → BB |
| June Purchaser | S&P | B → B+ |
| Latam Airlines | S&P | BB → BB+ |
| LBM Acquisition | S&P | B- → CCC+ |
| LEG Immobilien | Moody's | Baa2 → Baa1 |
| Liberty Servicios Fijos | S&P | B+ → BB- |
| Mineral Resources | Fitch | BB- → BB |
| Mondi | Moody's | Baa1 → Baa2 |
| Montenegro | Moody's | Ba3 → Ba2 |
| Notting Hill Genesis | S&P | A- → BBB+ |
| ONEOK | S&P | BBB → BBB+ |
| Paramount Skydance | S&P | BB+ → BB |
| PKO Bank Hipoteczny | Moody's | A3 → Baa1 |
| Prudential | Fitch | A+ → AA- |
| Rithm Capital | S&P | B → B+ |
| Saavi Energia | Fitch | BB- → BB+ |
| Smokey Topco | S&P | B- → CCC+ |
| Sri Lanka | Fitch | CCC+ → B- |
| Stonepeak Nile Parent | Fitch | BB+ → BB |
| Zorlu Enerji | Fitch | B+ → B- |
New bond sales stayed busy, even as higher yields made borrowing more expensive. From this week, the table shows only bonds sold in small lots, with a minimum investment of 2,000 or less in the bond's currency. Deals sold only in large blocks, or only to big US institutional investors, are left out. Food distributor Sysco sold about $11 billion of dollar bonds, and Italy raised €8 billion with a new 12-year bond. The Asian Development Bank sold $5 billion of bonds and German development bank KfW sold €3 billion. Nuveen sold $2 billion of dollar bonds to help fund its takeover of UK fund manager Schroders. In the US, companies sold about $33 billion of bonds, less than dealers expected, and some had to offer extra yield to get deals done.
| Issuer | Size | Term | Yield | Risk Level |
| Alchemy Merger Sub | USD 0,94bn |
7Y | 7,4% | Very High |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
USU0R02KAA95
|
||||
| ALLETE | USD 0,35bn |
10Y | 5,9% | Low |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
018522AD4
|
||||
| AltaGas Services U.S. | USD 0,75bn |
5Y | 5,8% | Medium |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
USU0203NAA91
|
||||
| Asian Development Bank | USD 5,0bn |
3–7Y | 5,0–5,1% | Very Low |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
US045167GV92…US045167GW75
|
||||
| Brookfield Finance | USD 0,60bn |
5Y | 5,7% | Low |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
US11271LAR33
|
||||
| Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | USD 1,3bn |
4Y | FLOAT | Low |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
US13607Q7T38…US13607Q7U01
|
||||
| CenterPoint Energy Houston Electric | USD 0,70bn |
5Y | 5,4% | Low |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
US15189XBM92
|
||||
| DDC 01 Propco | USD 1,1bn |
5Y | 9,3% | High |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
USU24028AA74
|
||||
| Dick's Sporting Goods | USD 1,0bn |
10–30Y | 6,2–6,9% | Medium |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
US253393AK89…US253393AL62
|
||||
| Dominion Energy South Carolina | USD 0,30bn |
30Y | 6,2% | Low |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
US25731VAD64
|
||||
| Italy | EUR 8,0bn |
12Y | 4,5% | Medium |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
IT0005733099
|
||||
| KfW | EUR 3,0bn |
6Y | 3,5% | Very Low |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3166721913
|
||||
| Kyndryl Holdings | USD 1,0bn |
3–5Y | 7,9–8,2% | Medium |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
US50155QAP54…US50155QAQ38
|
||||
| Millrose Properties | USD 1,0bn |
3–5Y | 6,5% | High |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
USU6006UAE11
|
||||
| Nuveen | USD 2,0bn |
3–10Y | 5,6–6,1% | Medium |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
USU6702LAD02…USU6702LAF59
|
||||
| OpenText | USD 1,0bn |
5–7Y | 6,7–7,2% | Medium |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
US683715AG19…USC69827AG58
|
||||
| Province of San Juan | USD 0,60bn |
9Y | 9,9% | Very High |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
P84469AC2
|
||||
| PSEG Power | USD 0,40bn |
5Y | 5,6% | Medium |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
USU7444PAK67
|
||||
| State of Baden-Wuerttemberg | EUR 0,60bn |
10Y | 3,7% | Very Low |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
DE000A3H26C0
|
||||
| State of Brandenburg | EUR 0,75bn |
4Y | 3,7% | Very Low |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
DE000A351UV1
|
||||
| State of Lower Saxony | EUR 0,50bn |
10Y | FLOAT, +20bp | Very Low |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
DE000A5GS3X8
|
||||
| Stonepeak Nile Parent | USD 0,12bn |
5Y | 7,2% | High |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
USU85907AA89
|
||||
| Sysco | USD 10,8bn |
3–40Y | 5,5–6,6% | Medium |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
87183XAA1…87183XAG8
|
||||
| Sysco Holdings | USD 3,9bn |
30Y | 7,1–7,3% | High |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
US87183XAH61…US87183XAK90
|
||||
| Toronto-Dominion Bank | USD 3,8bn |
2–10Y | 5,2–5,8%; FLOAT | Low |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
US89115KAU43…US89115KAX81
|
||||
| Vista Energy Argentina | USD 0,40bn |
12Y | 8,0% | High |
|
ISIN (CUSIP)
USP9659RAD00
|
||||