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03.12.2025
What Everyone’s Talking About in Bonds Now
What Everyone’s Talking About in Bonds Now
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Across Europe and the U.S., bond investors are closely watching corporate credit. Several widely discussed factors could influence returns and risk management for bond portfolios. Below, we summarize the most currently discussed topics that are shaping strategies and portfolio decisions.

Bond markets have become a lively debate ground again. Conversations among investors and analysts over the last week cluster around three big themes: (1) compressed credit spreads, (2) a record surge of corporate issuance, and (3) corporate vs. sovereign debt risk-return tradeoff.

As the ECB notes in its November Financial Stability Review, while euro-area corporate-bond spreads remain historically low, many corporate balance sheets are under pressure, especially in tariff-sensitive and export-oriented sectors. The ECB warns that the low spreads may be “hiding” underlying risks; in a negative macro or trade shock scenario, spreads could widen sharply and bond-market stress could increase significantly.

BNP Paribas analysts also caution that credit spreads are relatively tight compared with historical norms, so potential return from spread compression is limited - returns will likely come mainly from coupon rather than price appreciation. Some global asset managers view a disconnect between credit-market valuations and weakening macro dynamics, so they are moving from high-yield or richly priced corporate credit.

The next point is that issuance volumes are at record levels: BNP Paribas’ latest fixed-income note highlights that global bond supply has surged (roughly $5.95 trillion of issuance so far in 2025), with a large slice coming from corporates, including major technology firms borrowing to fund AI data-centre buildouts. Reuters and other outlets report hyperscalers have issued many tens of billions recently, and some banks and research teams now estimate AI-related debt could run into the high hundreds of billions. That flood of new supply matters because even well-rated paper must be absorbed by the market; if investor demand softens (or liquidity tightens), spreads can widen quickly.

But some fund managers argue corporate bonds - especially shorter-to-mid-dated, high-quality corporate and securitised credit - now offer a preferable risk-reward ratio versus long sovereigns that face heavy issuance and potential term-premium pressure. They recommend selective exposure to investment-grade corporate credit and intermediate maturities rather than bets on long government bonds. But, as we saw, compressed spreads leave little margin for selection error.

So, while constructing your bond portfolios, take a minute to define your position on the three themes above - are you comfortable with tight spreads, do you believe the market can absorb ongoing issuance, and do you prefer corporates to sovereigns for your goals? We hope it will be helpful.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.

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Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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