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04.02.2026
When Bond Markets Stop Listening to Fundamentals
When Bond Markets Stop Listening to Fundamentals
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In recent weeks, government bond yields and credit spreads have shown unusual volatility despite relatively stable macroeconomic indicators. Short-term market reactions are increasingly shaped by headlines rather than by economic releases or central bank guidance. This has led to periods where market pricing appears disconnected from underlying economic conditions. Are the bond investors ready to exploit them?

 A senior Morgan Stanley fixed-income strategist, Vishal Khanduja, in his recent interview with Business Insider highlighted a growing disconnect between headline-driven market moves and underlying bond market fundamentals, a gap he believes is creating selective opportunities for patient investors.

According to the Morgan Stanley strategist, geopolitical news flow and political rhetoric are increasingly driving short-term volatility in rates and credit, often pushing yields and spreads away from levels justified by macro data such as growth, inflation and corporate balance sheets. These abrupt moves, he argues, tend to exaggerate risks in the moment, creating divergence from fundamentals.

In his view, markets have become highly reactive to political signals, leading to sharp but often short-lived repricing. This dynamic has reduced the informational value of daily price moves and increased the importance of distinguishing between structural trends and transient noise. As a result, bonds that sell off on headlines alone may offer attractive entry points once the initial shock fades.

The Morgan Stanley strategist pointed to recent episodes in which benchmark government bond yields moved by 10–20 basis points within days following political or geopolitical developments, despite little change in macroeconomic data releases. The similar distortions are often emerging in high-quality corporate bonds. Risk premiums have periodically widened not because of deteriorating fundamentals, but due to macro uncertainty and de-risking flows.

Overall, Khanduja sees opportunities for medium- to long-term investors to profit by capitalising on these dislocations, particularly in rates and credit markets where relative value trades exist across regions and sectors.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.

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Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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