Readings

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
Back
06.08.2025
When Bond Spreads Get Tighter Than Your Jeans After Thanksgiving
When Bond Spreads Get Tighter Than Your Jeans After Thanksgiving
65

Credit spreads are tighter than they’ve been in decades—but is that good news or a warning? As investors flock to seemingly safe corporate debt, some experts warn that these historically tight spreads could offer little upside but expose portfolios to painful shocks.

Credit markets are flashing a powerful signal: spreads are near historically tight levels, and investors are split between caution and cautious re-entry. The ICE BofA U.S. Corporate Index now trades around 78 basis points over Treasuries - just a tick above the all-time tight of 77 bps set in 1998. This compression reflects a strong appetite for yield and confidence in a U.S. economic outlook, but not all asset managers are happy with that. 

Gregory Peters is the Co-Chief Investment Officer at PGIM Fixed Income (formerly known as Prudential Investment Management), one of the world’s largest and most influential bond managers, overseeing approximately $862 billion in fixed income assets.

In a recent Financial Times interview Peters noted that “spreads across credit look pretty tight”. He believes current levels leave little room for error—pain could come whether spreads tighten further or unwind: “…whether they move a little tighter or wider, there will be pain regardless”.

Bryan Yeo, Chief Investment Officer at GIC (Singapore Sovereign Wealth Fund), recently said: “We are now at a part of the cycle where we feel that spreads are a lot tighter” and cautioned that many investors lack experience navigating a full downturn in that space. His thoughts reflect a widespread anxiety: spreads in bond market may be offering little cushion against future volatility.

Despite the warnings, not all investors are sitting on the sidelines. Vishal Khanduja, co-head of Broad Markets Fixed Income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, acknowledged tight valuations but noted that his team has recently increased credit exposure: “We are overweight credit risk… getting risk back that we sold… given tight valuations at that point.”

In summary, while tight credit spreads signal investor optimism and liquidity, they also raise structural concerns. While most investors betting that macro conditions and low volatility may allow spreads to remain compressed, at least in the short term, others see a growing risk of repricing.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
Translate
Warning! The translation is automatic and may contain errors.