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22.12.2025
Will Dutch Pension Reform Trigger a Major Bond Sell-Off?
Will Dutch Pension Reform Trigger a Major Bond Sell-Off?
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The Netherlands is changing how its pension system works. Until now, pensions were based on fixed promises. Pension funds promised a certain payout in the future and had to make sure the money would be there. To do this, they bought large amounts of long-term bonds. The longer the promise, the longer the bond maturity they needed.

The new system works differently. Pension money will move into personal investment accounts. Each person will have their own pension pot, and the final pension will depend on how financial markets perform over time. There is no longer a fixed payment that must be delivered at a specific date. Because of this, pension funds no longer need to match future payments with very long-dated bonds in the same way as before.

This change has raised concerns in the bond market. Many investors fear that Dutch pension funds will reduce their bond holdings, especially at the long end. Some commentators argue that this could hurt long-term bonds. One example is this article, which takes a cautious view on the impact of the reform.

The author points out that Dutch pension funds are very large and suggests that demand for bonds with maturities above 30 years could decline as the new system is introduced. 

We agree on one point. Demand for very long bonds will likely be lower in the future.

But we disagree on the conclusion. We do not expect a big sell-off.

Pension funds are not forced to sell their bonds. They already hold large portfolios and there is no deadline to exit them. On top of that, the transition will be slow. Most funds will move to the new system between 2026 and 2028. This is a gradual process, not a sudden shift.

Most of the adjustment will happen through hedging. Pension funds are expected to reduce interest-rate hedges, mainly done through derivatives such as swaps. This affects the derivatives market more than the cash bond market. Bonds themselves remain useful. Pension funds still need income and diversification, so bonds will continue to play a role, even if the balance changes.

In practice, this means we do not see structural pressure on euro bond yields. Any reduction in demand for very long bonds should happen slowly over time.

Overall, we see bonds in EUR as attractive going into next year. The ECB is likely to stay on hold. EU and German issuance will rise, but remain below US and UK levels. Demand for bonds remains strong, and long-term yields look attractive compared to cash.

 

This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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