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11.02.2026
Peripheral Bonds vs Bunds: Rethinking Value in Europe’s Bond Market
Peripheral Bonds vs Bunds: Rethinking Value in Europe’s Bond Market
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Euro-area government bond spreads have slipped to levels not seen for more than a decade, reshaping the risk-reward balance for bond investors. Italian and Spanish bonds no longer offer the generous premium they once did, while German Bunds face a wave of new supply. Is now the right moment to rethink where European bond value truly lies?

Euro-area government bond spreads - the yield premium investors earn for holding Italian, Spanish or other peripheral bonds over German Bunds - have compressed to historically low levels. Italy’s 10-year spread over Germany has recently traded around 120-130 bps, down from more than 250 bps during periods of stress earlier in the decade, while Spain’s spread has hovered closer to 70-80 bps, near post-crisis lows. This reflects improved fiscal discipline, lower political risk premiums and confidence that the ECB will prevent disorderly market moves.

At the same time, Germany is set to increase government bond issuance materially in 2026. Gross Bund issuance is expected to exceed €220-230 billion, noticeably higher than pre-pandemic norms, as Berlin finances infrastructure projects and defense spending. Higher supply means more bonds must be absorbed by the market, which can cap price gains. As a result, the 10-year Bund yield, recently around 2.7-2.9%, may struggle to fall meaningfully unless growth weakens sharply or the ECB signals rate cuts.

Bondfish opinion

With spreads already near cycle lows, the case for holding peripheral bonds looks less compelling. If Italian spreads are already close to 120 bps, the potential upside from narrowing is limited compared with the downside risk if fiscal concerns resurface or market sentiment turns.

However, peripheral bonds still offer higher income: Italy’s 10-year yield remains around 4.0%, compared with under 3.0% for Germany, while Spain offers roughly 3.3-3.5%. Trimming these holdings could materially reduce portfolio yield. So, though we suppose it’s a good time to tilt more toward Bunds, but moving entirely out of Italy, Spain or other peripherals may sacrifice too much yield for limited risk reduction.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.

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Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev