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26.11.2025
Yields Rising… or Just Stretching? The Bund Market’s Big Question
Yields Rising… or Just Stretching? The Bund Market’s Big Question
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With Bund yields holding near multi-month highs, global banks have adjusted their tone. Some banks project only a gentle drift higher in yields, while others foresee a more decisive climb driven by fiscal and policy trends. Will the Bund market surprise forecasters yet again?

BNP Paribas Wealth Management has turned Neutral on euro core government bonds (such as German Bunds), after previously being more bullish. Their 12-month target yield for German 10-year bonds is about 2.75%, suggesting that yields don’t have much room to compress further, and investors may not benefit much from further price gains in core sovereign bonds from here.

BNP’s macro narrative helps explain this yield target. They expect the ECB to hold rates for a prolonged period, possibly not hiking until late 2026, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is more likely to begin cutting earlier (they forecast rate reductions via late 2026). This policy divergence - ECB staying put, Fed easing - is central to BNP’s outlook: German sovereign yields are supported by domestic fiscal strength, but are vulnerable to upward repricing because the ECB will not step in to aggressively compress rates. Their scenario implies a range-bound Bund market with occasional upward pressure.

UBS Asset Management’s team is also underweight Bunds now, arguing that Germany’s growth outlook is showing signs of improvement and that the incoming fiscal impulse plus a prolonged ECB policy pause make Bund yields look less attractive as a defensive play. In its earlier 2Q2025 outlook, UBS projected that the 10-year German Bund yield could drop to 2.25% by year-end, assuming dovish developments.

Morgan Stanley and other large houses have emphasized the same practical conclusion for investors: Bunds can still act as portfolio insurance, but they are less of a one-way “safe” trade than they were when yields were near zero. They recommend 5- to 10-year maturities, avoiding loading up on ultra-long duration. The primary risks remain the same: (1) German fiscal plans that could lift issuance and push yields higher, and (2) an ECB that may remain on a prolonged pause rather than cutting.

Bondfish opinion

The market has already pushed Bund yields modestly higher through November - Germany’s 10-year yield traded around 2.70% in mid/late November as markets absorbed macro data and ECB guidance. On a related note, Edmond de Rothschild’s analysts recently noted a “pause” in the Bund rally, with 10-year Bund yields moving higher. Though that suggests recent momentum is not strongly favoring a renewed rally, we believe that the long-dated Bunds remain the best defensive allocation amid a vulnerable stock market.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.

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Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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