Publication date: 13-10-2025
Romania’s recent story is one of change, reform, and determination to restore stability.
After a turbulent election year in 2024, the country entered a new chapter in May 2025, when President Nicușor Dan, an independent, pro-EU reformist, came to power. He has brought a more pragmatic tone to politics, working closely with Prime Minister Ilie-Gavril Bolojan, whose government enjoys a broad parliamentary majority. Their joint task is enormous: rebuilding fiscal discipline while keeping the economy on track.
Romania is a semi-presidential republic, where the president is head of state and the prime minister leads the government. The two now share the responsibility of guiding the country through its most ambitious fiscal adjustment in over a decade. After years of high deficits, the government has launched a large fiscal package, combining tax increases and spending restraint. The deficit, which reached 9,3 % of GDP in 2024, is expected to decline to about 7,7 % in 2025 and 6,2 % in 2026. The process will be difficult, but the political consensus behind it is unusually strong by Romanian standards.
Despite short-term pain, Romania’s fundamentals remain sound. The economy is diverse: electronics, IT, and motor-vehicle production form its industrial backbone, while agriculture and natural gas exports play supporting roles. Romania is now the largest electronics producer in Central and Eastern Europe and a growing centre for cybersecurity and mobile technology. Income levels are among the highest in the region, with GDP per capita (PPP - purchasing power parity) estimated at USD 46 900 in 2024, well above most neighbouring economies.
The country’s strategic location shapes its importance. Together with Bulgaria, Romania provides the EU with access to the Black Sea, a key trade and security corridor linking Europe with the Caucasus and the Middle East. It also forms a land bridge between Greece and Turkey in the south and Western Europe in the north. Its membership in NATO, the EU (since 2007), and the Schengen area (since March 2024) underlines its deep integration with Western institutions.
Economically, Romania faces headwinds. Growth was modest at 0,8% in 2024 and will likely stay subdued in 2025–2026 as fiscal tightening bites. Inflation, which had eased to 5,5% in 2024, rose again after VAT and energy price changes. The National Bank of Romania holds its policy rate steady at 6,50%, waiting for clear signs that inflation is back under control.
Trade is tightly integrated with the EU single market, with Germany as Romania’s main trading partner. More than two-thirds of both exports and imports are with EU countries, reflecting deep supply-chain connections. Externally, Romania runs a large current-account deficit, measured at 8,4 % of GDP in 2024. The gap reflects high import needs for energy and investment goods. However, the country benefits from sizeable inflows of EU Recovery and Cohesion Funds, amounting to over €40 billion, or around 13 % of GDP.
Romania’s public debt, at around 55% of GDP, remains manageable, and credit ratings agencies keep the country at the lowest investment-grade level (Fitch BBB-/Negative, S&P BBB-/Negative, Moody’s Baa3/Negative). All three agencies recognise the strong reform intent of the new leadership but stress the importance of implementation.
The 6,625 % euro bond due September 2029 mirrors this balance of progress and caution. It offers a high fixed coupon in euros, about four years to maturity, and no early-redemption risk. It matures before President Nicușor Dan’s current term ends in 2030, providing investors with visibility through a predictable political cycle as Romania works to restore fiscal stability and deepen its European integration.
as of 31.12.2024
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 | Column 4 | Column 5 | Column 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP, EUR bn | 371,2 | Debt/GDP | 54,8 % | Inflation | 5,8 % |
| GDP per capita, EUR th | 19,5 | Foreign currency debt / Government debt | 52,8 | Unemployment | 5,4 % |
| GDP growth, yoy | 0,8 % | Interest expense / Government revenue | 6,8 % | Central government balance / GDP | -9,3 % |
| Current account / GDP | -8,4 % | Reserves / foreign-currency debt | 71 % | Policy rate | 6,5 % |
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