Publication date: 14-12-2025
Uzbekistan is a fast-growing country in Central Asia with a population of about 36 million. Its economy is based on gold and metals, energy, agriculture, manufacturing, and a rapidly growing services sector such as trade, transport, and tourism.
Image: Uzbekistan on world map. Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica
Gold plays a central role in the country’s finances. It accounts for around 40% of exports, about one-quarter of budget revenues, and around 75–80% of foreign-exchange reserves. This makes public finances and external stability highly sensitive to gold prices.
Economic growth has been strong and stable. GDP growth averaged around 6–6,5% in recent years and is expected to remain close to this level in the medium term. Growth is supported by infrastructure investment, energy projects, and domestic consumption.
Uzbekistan runs moderate budget deficits, close to 3% of GDP, and government debt is around 34–35% of GDP, which is low by emerging-market standards. About 85–90% of government debt is denominated in foreign currency, but most of it is concessional, meaning long maturities and low interest rates provided by official lenders.
The current account deficit has recently narrowed to around 3–5% of GDP, reflecting strong gold exports and high remittances. Foreign-exchange reserves (including gold) are about USD 50–60 billion, equivalent to 10–13 months of imports, which is high for an emerging market and comfortably covers upcoming external debt repayments.
Remittances from workers abroad are structurally important. They amount to around 7–8% of GDP and support household consumption and domestic demand, especially during periods of weaker external trade.
Uzbekistan is a presidential republic. Power is centralized, but policy direction has been consistent in recent years. The next presidential election is scheduled for 2030. The country follows a neutral foreign policy, is not part of NATO, and relies on regional cooperation rather than military alliances. While geopolitical risks exist due to regional tensions and links to Russia, their direct impact on the economy has so far been limited.
Image: Old city of Bukhara, Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan’s currency is the Uzbek som (UZS). The exchange rate is managed under a controlled floating regime. The central bank allows gradual movements while intervening to smooth volatility, often through gold-related operations. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan targets inflation, using policy rates as its main tool. Inflation remains elevated but is declining, and monetary policy credibility has improved in recent years.
Uzbekistan is rated BB by S&P and Fitch, and Ba3 with a positive outlook by Moody’s. Rating agencies highlight strong growth potential and moderate debt, balanced against low income levels, governance challenges and exposure to commodities.
The Uzbekistan 5,1% bond due February 2029 is a senior unsecured euro-denominated bond. It has no call option and a remaining maturity of around 3 years. The bond is normally traded in EUR 100.000 denominations, but it is available for purchase via Trade Republic from €1, making it accessible to retail investors.
as of 31-12-2024
| Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value | Indicator | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP, EUR bn | 106–110 | Debt / GDP | 34–35 % | Inflation | 9,7 % |
| GDP per capita, EUR th | 3,0 | Foreign-currency debt / government debt | 85–90 % | Unemployment | 5,5 % |
| GDP growth, yoy | 6,5 % | Interest expense / government revenue | 4,0 % | General government balance / GDP | -3,3 % |
| Current account / GDP | -5,0 % | Reserves / foreign-currency debt | 95–110 % | Policy rate | 14,0 % (latest) |
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