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Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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05.11.2025
Analysts See Limited Room for U.S. Treasury Rally
Analysts See Limited Room for U.S. Treasury Rally
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The next Fed rate cut has arrived, yet the reaction in U.S. Treasuries has been surprisingly subdued. Fund managers see modest upside potential, with much of the rally already priced in after months of anticipation. Analysts see modest price upside and prefer short maturities for safety and yield. Is the bond market telling us the easing cycle will be slower than expected?

The Fed reduced the policy rate by 25 bps at its October meeting, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. But Chair Jerome Powell stressed at the post-meeting press conference that a further cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion,” warning investors not to assume an automatic easing path given mixed data and internal committee divisions. That caution has trimmed some of the Treasury rally: the 10-year yield, which had been trading slightly below 4.00% before the meeting, rose back closer to the 4.1% area after Powell’s remarks.

Asset managers see only modest upside in price from current levels. Nuveen’s fixed-income team summed up the current balance plainly: “10-year Treasury yields fell marginally last week, and we expect minimal further declines from here.” Trading desks continue to recommend selective, front-end positioning rather than blanket long duration.

Barclays’ strategy team last week recommended a tactical long in the 2-year Treasury, flagging an entry around 3.6% and saying they “believe two-year yields can fall by 25 bps” if incoming data and Fed guidance keep the easing story intact. That contrasts with the longer end: heavy issuance and Powell’s caution about December mean 10- to 30-year Treasuries face more headwinds and therefore limited price upside.

Nomura’s note last week said, “Data are likely to be modestly dovish in the months ahead, but we doubt the weakness will be sufficient to rekindle FOMC concerns of a deteriorating labor market,” and therefore Nomura now expects a less aggressive path of cuts - a conclusion that limits price upside for 10-30 year Treasuries.

Bondfish opinion

We agree that short-dated Treasuries (2- to 3-year) may offer the best risk-reward for a near-term price pop, while longer maturities look more exposed to a surprise on inflation, supply, or Fed messaging. We believe yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries are likely to hover around the psychological 4% level in the near term, holding steady until the next FOMC meeting or the release of key economic data that could prompt the Fed to cut rates in December.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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