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Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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17.11.2025
Are Hyperscaler Bonds the Next Big Tech Trouble Spot?
Are Hyperscaler Bonds the Next Big Tech Trouble Spot?
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Big tech companies are borrowing at unprecedented rates to fund their AI ambitions, and Michael Hartnett believes that some of these bonds are now ripe for scrutiny. Investors have long trusted that bonds from tech giants are virtually risk-free, but Hartnett’s recent comments suggest otherwise. Why are analysts paying closer attention to these high-profile issuers?

Bank of America’s chief strategist, Michael Hartnett, has recently raised a red flag on what he calls “hyperscaler” bonds - debt issued by some of the largest tech companies (e.g. Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Oracle) that are aggressively borrowing to fund massive AI‑data center buildouts. Hartnett’s concern is that these companies may be overstretching: while cash and profits are large, their capital expenditures for data infrastructure are surging, and they are increasingly turning to the debt markets to pay for it.

The credit spreads on these hyperscaler bonds - the extra yield investors demand over U.S. Treasuries - have already widened recently (from about 50 bps to as much as 80 bps), a sign that the bond market is becoming more wary. Hartnett likens some of the risks to past tech excesses: the scale of AI capex, he argues, could make these issuers vulnerable, even if they are “high-quality” on paper.

One reason this trade is particularly compelling to him is that bond market conditions are unusually “easy” now - credit spreads are very narrow (what Hartnett calls “trough spreads”), making downside more meaningful if things go wrong. He warns that as these companies issue more debt, any misstep in their spending plans, or a shift in rate expectations, could trigger a sharper repricing of their bonds.

From a retail bond‑investor’s lens, the implication is subtle but potentially meaningful: hyperscaler bonds were long seen as safe “tech infrastructure” plays, but Hartnett is suggesting a structural risk here. That doesn’t necessarily mean avoiding all big tech credit — but the trade-off between yield, cash flow, and capex is changing. For investors who hold or are considering these bonds, Hartnett’s thesis invites a reevaluation of how much credit risk they’re willing to take on in the name of funding the AI buildout.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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