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Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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15.09.2025
Bank Leaders Turn Cautious on Growth, Eye Faster Fed Cuts
Bank Leaders Turn Cautious on Growth, Eye Faster Fed Cuts
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Over the past week, the world’s most influential bankers and market strategists have shifted their tone. After months of steady optimism, they are now warning about softer growth, calling for faster rate cuts, and their comments hint at a coming turn in the economic cycle, even as equity markets remain near their highs. Could this be the moment when the market narrative quietly flips?

Jamie Dimon Warns on Slowing U.S. Growth. J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC last week that recent labour-data revisions and mixed indicators point to a weaker U.S. economy - a caveat that investors should take seriously even as corporate earnings remain resilient. Jamie Dimon emphasized that recent labor data revisions are substantial: the U.S. added 911,000 fewer jobs in the year through March 2025 than earlier reported. He said plainly: “I think the economy is weakening. Whether it’s on the way to recession or just weakening, I don’t know.” Dimon also warned that expected rate cuts by the Fed may be “not consequential to the economy.” He flagged multiple long-cycle risks: tariffs, immigration policy shifts, geopolitical tensions.

Trade implication: if you’re risk-averse, consider reducing cyclical and highly leveraged positions, raising cash buffers and adding short-duration investment-grade bonds.

Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank Turn Dovish on Policy Path. Both Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have updated their forecasts to expect 25 bps cuts at each of the Fed’s remaining meetings in September, October, and December. Previously they had forecast only one or two cuts. Morgan Stanley’s team, led by economists including Michael Gapen, cites softer inflation pressures, elevated labor-market risks, and signs of decelerating job growth and vacancies. Matthew Luzzetti of Deutsche Bank said “risks are skewed towards more reductions in 2026”. That means higher conviction among big banks that policy easing is near.

Trade implication: rate-sensitive assets (long-duration bonds, REITs, growth stocks) could get a near-term boost if cuts occur - but keep position sizes moderate and ladder fixed-income holdings to avoid reinvestment risk if yields climb again.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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