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Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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27.10.2025
Bond Investors Eye Gains as Fed Rate-Cut Probabilities Near 100%
Bond Investors Eye Gains as Fed Rate-Cut Probabilities Near 100%
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For months, the Federal Reserve’s message has been “wait and see,” but now markets are no longer waiting. With investors betting heavily on imminent rate cuts, fund managers and economists are debating whether this optimism will pay off or backfire. What happens if policy takes a slower turn than markets predict?

Bond markets are nearly convinced that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates again soon. Futures now price a near-100% chance of a 25 bps cut at the October 28-29 meeting and around a 95% chance of another cut in December, according to CME FedWatch data. A Reuters poll of economists found all but two of 117 surveyed expect an October cut and roughly 71% expect a December move. In total, markets expect the policy rate to fall from 4.25% toward 3.75% by year-end as inflation eases and growth slows.

On the institutional commentary side, Earl R. Davis, Head of Fixed Income at BMO Global Asset Management, told Bloomberg last week: “Our base case is still 25 points in December… We see the chance of a 50 points cut has increased dramatically… we see terminal rate around 3%.” Other major banks and strategists broadly agree the trajectory is downward. For instance, Bank of America moved its forecast for the next Fed cut from December to October, citing signs of labour-market softness, and said the market is overwhelmingly pricing in the move.

The near-certainty of a rate cut in October means markets may already price in a large portion of the move. Strategists and fund-managers are now talking about the size of the December move. Given the soft labour market signals and elevated odds of easing, sectors sensitive to interest rates (such as real estate, consumer discretionary, and high-yield debt) may benefit - but only if inflation continues to moderate. Any surprise could trigger a sharp reaction in bond, equity, and currency markets.

Bondfish opinion

For retail bond investors, this means three key things. First, duration may finally pay off - if rates fall, longer-maturity bonds could rise in price. Second, short-term yields may start to drift lower, so reinvestment at today’s yields won’t last forever. Third, investors should stay patient and avoid aggressive bets on long-dated bonds as the Fed navigates the final leg of its inflation fight.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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