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Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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22.09.2025
Corporate Bonds Surpass French Sovereigns in Investor Confidence
Corporate Bonds Surpass French Sovereigns in Investor Confidence
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In financial textbooks, sovereign bonds are always meant to be the ultimate benchmark of security, offering the lowest possible yield. In France, a growing number of corporations are now borrowing at cheaper rates than the government itself, exposing the market’s discomfort with the state’s fiscal trajectory. Is it a last warning or opportunity for investors? 

Last week, some investment-grade French corporate issuers, such as L’Oréal, Airbus, and Axa, were pricing their bonds with yields below those of French government bonds (OATs) for similar maturities. Ten-year French government bonds now trade above 3.2%, while recent issues from highly rated corporates such as L’Oréal, Airbus, and Sanofi have offered yields closer to 3.0% or even lower.

According to Goldman Sachs data, about 10 French corporates are now trading with negative spreads relative to the sovereign. For example, LVMH has a 2033 bond that has recently yielded slightly under its comparable-maturity French sovereign bond: the spread has at times inverted by as much as 7 bps in its favour. That’s the most in data going back to 2006. In contrast, previously these bonds traded at a premium of around 20-60 bps depending on issuer and maturity.

You know the reasons. France has been in political flux: new prime ministers, no-confidence votes, and difficulty in passing budget plans. Investors are growing worried about the ability of the French government to reduce its deficit (currently projected around 5-6% of GDP, above EU targets) and to stabilize its debt load. Meanwhile, for high-quality companies, investors are relatively confident about their earnings, cash flow, and ability to meet obligations.

Bondfish opinion

Investors should keep a close eye on 10y French government bond yields, as markets have shown a tendency to overreact to political noise. Episodes of parliamentary deadlock, heated budget debates, or ratings headlines can quickly push sovereign yields higher and create opportunities for patient investors.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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