Home Bond screener Top picks Pricing Readings About

Readings

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
Back
22.10.2025
Longer-Duration Bonds Start to Outperform Short-Term Peers
Longer-Duration Bonds Start to Outperform Short-Term Peers
25

Investors may be surprised to learn that longer-duration bonds are starting to outperform shorter ones across the U.S., U.K., and euro area. With yield curves steepening and inflation moderating, the long end of the bond market is offering fresh opportunities for both yield and price gains. Is it time for investors to reconsider their approach to bond duration?

After a volatile couple of years, long-dated government bonds are showing renewed strength. According to AXA Investment Managers, longer-duration bonds in the U.S., U.K., and euro area have started to outperform shorter maturities this year. The Bloomberg Euro Government Bond 7–10 Year Index is up about 4.2% year-to-date, compared with just 1.7% for the 1–3 Year Index, underscoring the return of positive duration effects. The pattern is similar in the U.S., where the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury 10-Year+ Index has returned roughly 5% in total, versus 1% for the short end.

Chris Iggo, Chair of the AXA Investment Institute and CIO at AXA IM Core, observes that “in the U.S., U.K. and euro area government bond markets, longer duration has outperformed this year — seven-to-10-year indices versus one-to-three-year indices.” He notes that this runs counter to the bearish narrative focused on government debt and bond oversupply. “The 10-year versus 2-year spread in European government bonds is back to its 30-year average level,” Iggo adds, suggesting that “with cash rates at just 2%, the longer end of the bond market is attractive.”

Of course, the case for long duration isn’t risk-free. Yields can swing sharply if inflation or fiscal pressures pick up. The French OAT 30-year yield, for instance, climbed from 3.20% in August to nearly 3.60% before retracing, reminding investors that long bonds can swing sharply when sentiment shifts. Shorter-duration instruments — such as 2- to 5-year Treasuries or the Euro Government 1–3 Year Index — continue to appeal to those prioritising stability or tactical flexibility.

Bondfish opinion

Even so, the recent data supports a moderate repositioning toward the long end of the curve. The combination of higher yields on the long end and the potential for total returns to benefit if rates decline, for example, in case of “risk-off” scenario, makes longer-duration bonds increasingly appealing. So, investors willing to accept some duration risk, may move into the 7-10 years segment to get both yield and price upside.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
Translate
Warning! The translation is automatic and may contain errors.