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Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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28.07.2025
No US Rate Cut Yet — But Here’s How Smart Investors Are Getting Ready
No US Rate Cut Yet — But Here’s How Smart Investors Are Getting Ready
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Will the Fed hold steady or hint at a coming cut? As markets bet on a September shift, and Trump criticized Powell for keeping rates «too high for too long», will the Fed keep its independence and data-driven approach?

As the Federal Reserve prepares for its July 30, 2025, policy meeting, the markets are already looking ahead to September. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged this month, but shifting macroeconomic signals and subtle pivots in policymaker rhetoric have fueled growing speculation of a rate cut on the next meeting.

According to a recent (July 17–23) Reuters poll of 105 economists, not a single one expects the Fed to move rates at the upcoming meeting. The federal funds rate is expected to remain at 4.25%–4.50%, a level maintained since late 2024. The CME FedWatch Tool reflects similar confidence, with less than a 5% probability of a July rate cut priced in.

The market’s eye is firmly on a first 25‑bps cut in September instead. Futures markets are currently pricing in a 58–66% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the FOMC’s next meeting. Analysts from Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Bank of America see a growing likelihood of cuts beginning later this year — but opinions diverge on timing and pace.

All analysts agree that the labor market data hasn’t softened enough to trigger action yet. UBS team believes that cuts will begin in September if current trends continue. BofA economists suggest a possibility of a rapid cut cycle – up to 75 bps starting in September – if labor markets deteriorate before end of summer.

The key factors to watch are the unemployment rate, still remaining below 4.2%, while job growth has slowed, and the Core PCE remaining sticky near 2.6% y/y. The tariff hikes introduced by the Trump administration may spur inflation volatility too, complicating Fed decisions.

With no immediate policy shift expected, retail investors have a window of opportunity to lock in current elevated yields. Yields on 2-5 year Treasuries and CDs remain slightly below 4%, offering safe and attractive returns before rates likely fall. In corporate credit, a bond ladder — staggering maturities across 1–5 years — allows gradual reinvestment as rates fall, keeping income steady over time.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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