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Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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19.11.2025
Oracle Bonds Reprice After Barclays Flags Rising Leverage Risks
Oracle Bonds Reprice After Barclays Flags Rising Leverage Risks
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Over the past week, Oracle has become one of the most discussed names in credit markets following Barclays’ decision to downgrade its debt. The call highlighted mounting concerns about funding needs and the sustainability of the company’s investment cycle. Market reactions were swift, with spreads widening across key maturities. Could this downgrade turn out to be the first sign of a broader shift in how tech-sector credit is evaluated?

Barclays’ fixed-income research team downgraded Oracle's debt rating to “Underweight” (equivalent to a “Sell” recommendation) last week, flagging that the company’s heavy AI-related capital spending has outpaced free cash flow and materially worsened its leverage and liquidity profile. Analyst Andrew Keches also warned that Oracle could ultimately fall to a BBB- rating, nearing the threshold for junk bonds.

Oracle 2.875% Mar 2031

Barclays’ analysis pointed to an already large gross debt stock (reported roughly $104 billion, including about $18 billion of public bonds) and said an additional planned borrowing program (reported as roughly $38 billion) to fund data-centre and AI projects would stretch financing needs further. Barclays’ stress testing - cited in analyst notes summarising the downgrade - estimated a material funding gap emerging in fiscal 2027 and warned cash buffers could be meaningfully depleted under some scenarios.

Markets re-priced Oracle’s credit risk quickly after the note and ensuing press coverage. Secondary trading showed a 2-3 bps widening in yields on key benchmark lines (for example, the 4.9% 2033 bond and newer 4.8% 2032 bond), and Oracle’s credit-default-swaps (CDS) jumped to their highest readings in roughly two years: five-year CDS were reported in the 80-85 bps area.

This downgrade and price action should be read in the broader context. News outlets and strategists have documented a wave of large debt issuance across major cloud players as they finance capacity for generative AI. Credit strategists note that while the hyperscalers still show large cash piles and long-term revenue backlogs, the pace of CAPEX and the resulting increase in leverage have forced markets to separate companies by balance-sheet resilience.

Oracle has been singled out because its free-cash-flow profile has been negative while its net adjusted debt projection scenarios show steep increases. It’s still unclear whether Oracle’s AI contracts and revenue pipeline will quickly convert to the cash flow needed to service materially higher debt, and how rating agencies will react if leverage fails to stabilise. The result in the near term will be wider spreads and more volatile mark-to-market valuations on Oracle’s outstanding bonds.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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