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20.09.2023
Pemex Bonds Z-Spread Drops Amid Government Support
Pemex Bonds Z-Spread Drops Amid Government Support
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The Z-spread for the Petroleos Mexicanos bond PEMEX 6.700 16-Feb-2032 (US71643VAB18) experienced a significant decrease of 93 basis points due to the Mexican government's budget allocation to address Pemex's maturing debts.

Pemex's US71643VAB18 has witnessed a notable shift in its Z-spread, decreasing by 93 basis points over the month. Other bonds issued by Mexico's largest state-owned oil company showed a similar reaction.

The Z-spread for the APEMEX bond (US71643VAB18), with a 6.700% coupon, due on February 16, 2032, in USD.

The primary reason for the significant spread movement is a pivotal move by the Mexican government. In their draft budget for the upcoming year, they have earmarked a dedicated capital allocation aimed at addressing Pemex's maturing debts, which have ballooned to an alarming $11 billion. This strategic inclusion of Pemex's maturing debt within the national budget serves two key purposes. Firstly, it's a bid to alleviate market concerns regarding the oil company's financial management, aiming to bolster investor confidence. Secondly, it sends a clear early signal to investors that Pemex will continue to receive strong support from the state, even with around $11.2 billion in debt amortizations looming in 2024.

While this budget allocation provides temporary relief, it introduces complexities for future administrations tasked with managing Pemex's mounting costs. Pemex's substantial debt, reaching $110.5 billion by June 2023, is the highest among major oil companies. It's clear that these ongoing measures to aid Pemex may become a fiscal burden for the federal government in the long run, potentially jeopardizing public finances.

Furthermore, Pemex's operational challenges, marked by declining crude production and refinery mismanagement, remain significant hurdles. While the government's support seeks to alleviate the debt load, it may not fully address the underlying structural issues, including negative free cash flows and substantial debt payments, as noted by analysts.

Fitch Ratings recently downgraded Pemex's credit ratings due to increasing concerns about its liquidity and debt, primarily driven by substantial short-term debt and imminent bond maturities. The company's senior unsecured debt is rated as follows: B+ by Fitch, B1 by Moody's, and BBB by S&P.

The yield chart for Pemex bonds as of September 20, 2023

About PEMEX

PEMEX Exploración y Producción manages oil and gas field properties, offering services in oil and natural gas exploration, exploitation, conveyance, and storage terminals. The company operates within Mexico.

This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.