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Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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20.07.2025
The TACO Effect: When a Meme Becomes a Market Signal
The TACO Effect: When a Meme Becomes a Market Signal
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It started with a joke in a financial newsletter, exploded into a viral moment on national TV, and now it’s showing up in everything from political cartoons to Wall Street trading strategies. So, what exactly is the TACO meme—and why it turned into a surprisingly reliable market signal?

TACO is an acronym for “Trump Always Chickens Out”. It mockingly highlights U.S. President Donald Trump’s pattern of making bold tariff threats and then quickly backing off in response to market anxiety or political pressure.

The phrase was first coined by Robert Armstrong, a Financial Times columnist, in a May 2, 2025 newsletter titled “Unhedged”. Armstrong described how markets began anticipating Trump’s strong policy threats as temporary bluff tactics, expecting him to reverse them when things started to hurt.

The acronym truly exploded after CNBC reporter Megan Cassella asked Trump about the “TACO trade” at a May 28, 2025 press briefing. Trump’s frustrated response — insisting “It’s called negotiation” and warning the reporter “Don’t ever say what you said… that’s a nasty question” — only fueled interest and made the moment go viral.

Financially, “TACO trade” became a recognized strategy on Wall Street: traders would buy the dip after Trump threatened new tariffs, banking on him eventually folding — a pattern directly inspired by his past reversals.

Unlike most political memes, TACO has real staying power—especially on Wall Street. Its accuracy in predicting Trump’s trade retreats gives it lasting value as both a joke and a market signal. As long as the pattern holds, so will the meme.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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