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Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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20.07.2025
Why Wall Street Is Betting on Short-Term Bonds Right Now
Why Wall Street Is Betting on Short-Term Bonds Right Now
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As U.S. Treasury yields hover near decade highs and political risks mount, institutions like BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America are quietly adjusting their fixed-income strategies — and so should investors. Should you still trust long-term Treasuries? Is the sweet spot hiding in the belly of the curve? With markets on edge and central bank credibility in question, the analysts across U.S. and European institutions agree: this is a moment for caution, but not retreat.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has turned increasingly cautious on long-dated Treasuries, citing concerns about rising fiscal deficits, supply risks, and central bank independence. The firm recommends focusing on short- and medium-term maturities, which offer attractive yields with lower sensitivity to rate volatility. “We're seeing long-end yields drift higher not just because of inflation, but because markets are pricing in growing term premium and structural debt risks”, - BlackRock analysts noted in their July update.

Bank of America echoes that sentiment, with strategists advising clients to underweight long-dated Treasuries due to elevated issuance, especially as the U.S. Treasury ramps up funding amid political uncertainty and potential tax cuts. According to BofA’s July fund manager survey, the consensus sees opportunity in steepening - buying mid-term Treasuries while selling off parts of the long end.

Morgan Stanley maintains a more balanced tone, projecting a 4%–5% trading range for 10-year yields over the next year and recommending investors take advantage of dislocations in the mid-duration segment (3–7 years). The bank emphasizes that this part of the curve is likely to offer the best risk-adjusted returns in a high-rate, late-cycle environment, especially if the Fed begins cutting rates cautiously by year-end.

European institutions like UBS and Deutsche Bank are also constructive on intermediate sovereign debt, particularly in the U.S. and Germany, viewing it as a hedge against potential growth shocks. UBS sees scope for rates to fall if political instability escalates in the U.S. or global trade tensions resurface.

In summary, while the fixed‑income market offers strong potential in the 4%-5% yield range, investors are being urged to keep durations short, monitor Fed independence, and use curve positioning as both a defensive and opportunistic strategy.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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