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04.10.2026
Weekly bond digest: September 28 – October 4, 2026
Weekly bond digest: September 28 – October 4, 2026
44

Yield Curves

German yields fell sharply this week, led by shorter maturities. The 2-year yield dropped 21 basis points to 3.07%, and the 10-year fell 14 basis points to 3.46%. Investors moved into German bonds as worries about government debt spread from France to Italy. The gap between Italian and German 10-year yields jumped from 91 to 114 basis points, and France's gap widened too. Lower energy prices, weak US jobs data and central bankers pushing back against more rate rises added to the rally. Markets now see European Central Bank rates peaking at around 3.15%, down from more than 3.5% a week earlier.

EUR Germany Sovereign Curve

US Treasury yields moved the other way at the long end. The 10-year yield rose 11 basis points to 5.27%, its highest level since 2002, while the 2-year slipped 3 basis points to 4.83%. Strong economic data, including revisions showing US consumers in better shape than thought, kept investors expecting more Federal Reserve rate rises. Yields stayed high even after Friday's jobs report showed only 29,000 new jobs, far below forecasts. Over September, the 10-year yield rose 53 basis points, its biggest monthly jump since 2022.

USD US Sovereign Curve

UK gilt yields barely moved. The 2-year yield fell 2 basis points to 4.81%, and the 10-year edged up 1 basis point to 5.37%. Some investors bought gilts as a safe haven alongside German bonds, but the rise in US yields kept long-dated gilts from rallying. Markets still expect the Bank of England to raise rates, with about 90 basis points of increases priced by the end of 2027. At the Labour Party conference, Prime Minister Burnham and Chancellor Healey promised to stick to the government's borrowing rules in the October budget.

GBP UK Sovereign Curve

With yields near multi-year highs, medium-term German bonds and 10-year UK gilts look attractive for long-term investors who can sit through short-term swings, though there is still no clear trigger for a lasting fall in US yields.

Top gainers

Safe-haven bonds led the gains as investors left riskier European debt. Long-dated German government bonds rose between 1.8% and 1.9%, with the 2048, 2053 and 2054 Bunds all in the top five. Swiss hydropower company Kraftwerke Linth-Limmern topped the list, with its 2052 bond up 2.4% as long-dated Swiss franc bonds rallied. Chemicals group BASF also gained, with its 2037 bond up 2.3% as German yields fell.

Name Cur Price change
1w(%)
Yield Risk Level
Kftwrk Linth Lim 3% Sep 2052 CHF 2,36% 1,85% Very High
BASF 1.625% Nov 2037 EUR 2,34% 4,29% Low
Germany 1.25% Aug 2048 EUR 1,92% 3,81% Very Low
Germany 1.8% Aug 2053 EUR 1,88% 3,81% Very Low
Germany 2.5% Aug 2054 EUR 1,80% 3,83% Very Low
Pfndbnk Schweiz 0% May 2045 CHF 1,72% 1,18% Very Low
Netherlands 3.5% Jan 2056 EUR 1,71% 3,79% Very Low
Pfandbrief Kntbk 1.15% Jan 2046 CHF 1,71% 1,22% Very Low
Pfndbnk Schweiz 2.25% Jul 2052 CHF 1,68% 1,17% Very Low
Pfndbnk Schweiz 0.375% Jun 2046 CHF 1,67% 1,22% Very Low

Top losers

Riskier bonds fell hardest. Ukraine's 2034 bond led the losers with a 7.4% drop, and Gabon's 2031 bond lost 5.5%, as rising US yields and nervous markets hit emerging-market debt. Paramount Global's 2032 bond fell 6.1% and Warner Bros. Discovery's 2033 euro bond lost 5.4%. Paramount Skydance sold $52 billion of debt this week to fund its takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, and much of the new debt weakened in trading. Mexican state oil company Pemex's 2060 bond dropped 5.0% as long-term US yields climbed.

Name Cur Price change
1w(%)
Yield Risk Level
Ukraine 4.5% Feb 2034 USD -7,37% 14,95% Very High
Paramount Global 4.2% May 2032 USD -6,10% 9,58% High
Gabon 7% Nov 2031 USD -5,55% 11,77% Very High
Warnermedia Hldg 4.693% May 2033 EUR -5,42% 6,57% High
Pemex 6.95% Jan 2060 USD -5,04% 9,41% High
Jordan 7.375% Oct 2047 USD -4,79% 8,19% High
Pemex 7.69% Jan 2050 USD -4,63% 9,44% High
Whirlpool 5.75% Mar 2034 USD -4,51% 12,03% High
Ecopetrol 5.875% May 2045 USD -4,41% 8,72% High
Sealed Air 6.875% Jul 2033 USD -4,35% 7,66% High

Rating changes

Note: only long-term senior unsecured ratings were taken into account.

Upgrades clearly outnumbered downgrades this week, 30 to 14. S&P raised Wells Fargo to A-, Fitch lifted American Express to A+, and Fitch also moved UK fund manager Schroders up to AA-. On the downside, S&P cut US food group Hormel Foods to BBB+, and Moody's lowered Finnish paper maker UPM-Kymmene to Baa2. Several companies coming out of debt restructurings also received higher ratings.

Issuer Agency Change
AAR S&P BB → BB-
Advancion S&P D → CCC+
Alior Bank Fitch BB+ → BBB-
American Express Fitch A → A+
Atlas CC S&P D → CCC
Banco BPM S&P BBB → BBB+
Bank of Ceylon Fitch CCC+ → B-
Befesa S&P BB → BB+
Berner Kantonalbank Moody's A2 → A1
Bolivia Moody's Caa3 → Caa2
China International Capital Moody's Baa1 → A3
China Merchants Port Moody's Baa1 → A3
Chrome Holdco S&P SD → CCC-
CITIC Securities Moody's Baa1 → A3
Delhi International Airport S&P BB → BB+
Flos B&B Italia Fitch B → B+
Fluvius System Operator Moody's A3 → Baa1
GMR Hyderabad International Airport S&P BB → BBB-
Great Places Housing Fitch A → A-
Guotai Haitong Securities Moody's Baa1 → A3
Herens Midco S&P SD → B-
Hormel Foods S&P A- → BBB+
Innio S&P B+ → BB-
Interstate Waste Services S&P B → B-
JELD-WEN S&P CCC+ → CC
LATAM Airlines Fitch BB → BB+
Leslie's Poolmart S&P CCC- → D
Lineage Fitch BBB+ → BBB
Meihua Holdings Moody's Baa3 → Baa2
Michaels Companies S&P B- → B
Oma Saastopankki S&P BBB → BBB+
Oscar AcquisitionCo S&P CCC → D
Platform Housing Fitch A+ → A
Raven Acquisition S&P B- → B
Recycle and Resource Operations S&P SD → CCC+
Schroders Fitch A+ → AA-
Sveafastigheter Fitch BBB- → BBB
Talen Energy Fitch BB- → B+
Torrid S&P CCC+ → CCC
Trekor Metals Fitch B- → B
UPM-Kymmene Moody's Baa1 → Baa2
Veracode Parent S&P CCC+ → CCC
Vivo Energy S&P BB+ → BBB-
Wells Fargo S&P BBB+ → A-

New issues

New bond sales slowed as rising yields made borrowing more expensive. The table shows only bonds sold in small lots, with a minimum investment of 2,000 or less in the bond's currency. Deals sold only in large blocks, or only to big US institutional investors, are left out. Paramount Skydance dominated the week: its dollar bonds in the table add up to about $41 billion, at yields from 6.3% to 9.1%, and many of them fell in price soon after the sale. Soup maker Campbell's found lukewarm demand for its new 30-year bond at 8.5%. In euros, Deutsche Telekom sold €1.9 billion across three bonds and Bulgaria raised €2.25 billion, while US grocer Kroger sold $1.5 billion of dollar bonds.

Issuer Size Term Yield Risk Level
Asian Development Bank GBP
0,75bn
3Y FLOAT Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3528345211
 
Bain Capital Private Credit USD
0,35bn
5Y 7,9% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
USU0553AAA35
 
Campbell's USD
0,30bn
30Y 8,5% High
ISIN (CUSIP)
US134429BS72
 
Deutsche Telekom EUR
1,9bn
4–12Y 4,0–4,7% Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3528376877…XS3528381281
 
Instituto de Crédito Oficial EUR
0,50bn
5Y 3,7% Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3526683621
 
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development USD
1,5bn
6Y FLOAT, +37bp Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
US459058MD26
 
Kroger USD
1,5bn
5–10Y 5,8–6,2% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
US501044EY35…US501044EZ00
 
LfA Förderbank Bayern EUR
0,50bn
7Y 3,8% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
DE000LFA2576
 
McGraw-Hill Education USD
0,40bn
7Y 8,0% High
ISIN (CUSIP)
USU5802LAB54
 
Minerals Technologies USD
0,40bn
5Y 7,5% High
ISIN (CUSIP)
USU60088AB41
 
NCL Corporation USD
0,95bn
5Y 8,8% Very High
ISIN (CUSIP)
G6436QAX4
 
Paramount Skydance USD
41,4bn
2–40Y 6,3–9,1% High
ISIN (CUSIP)
USU7010QAR30…USU7010QAQ56
 
Republic of Bulgaria EUR
2,2bn
5–18Y 4,2–5,3% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS2716887760…XS2890435600
 
State of Schleswig-Holstein EUR
1,0bn
8Y 3,8% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
DE000SHFM1K6
 
Trinity Capital USD
0,30bn
5Y 7,7% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
896442AM2
 
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Investments in securities and other financial instruments always involve the risk of loss of your capital. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.