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Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
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28.07.2025
Will Policy Pause from ECB Make Bonds Great Again?
Will Policy Pause from ECB Make Bonds Great Again?
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What if the most «boring» part of your portfolio is about to get interesting? As the European Central Bank hits the brakes on rate cuts and foreign investors flood back into eurozone debt, a high-stakes tug of war is unfolding between rock-solid demand and a historic surge in supply. Behind the calm façade of government bonds lies a rapidly shifting landscape — one where yield curves could bend, break, or suddenly steepen.

On July 24, 2025, the ECB paused its interest-rate cutting cycle, keeping the deposit rate at 2% after eight adjustments over the past year. The ECB has now signaled a more cautious, data-dependent approach. Analysts view this as potentially the end of rate cuts unless macro conditions deteriorate.

Investors shifted from pricing in aggressive ECB easing to a more balanced outlook, as the key rate stability supports bond yields at current levels. Yields on short- and medium-dated eurozone bonds rose modestly, reflecting pared-back easing bets. However, strong demand helped keep longer-dated yields anchored, maintaining a relatively flat curve—at least for now.

With ECB policy on hold, the eurozone bond market now faces conflicting forces.

As the dollar weakens, eurozone bonds were suddenly in the spotlight, attracting record foreign demand. In May 2025, foreign investors poured nearly €97 billion into Eurozone bonds—the largest monthly inflow since at least 2014, Citi said.

According to Barclays analysis, central banks and sovereign wealth funds have bought about 20% of euro zone government debt sold at syndications year-to-date, up from 16% for the whole of last year. The most remarkable deals where official institutions were allocated large shares include a 30-year German bond sale in March (55%), and a 10-year Spanish bond sale in May (27%).

But supply is surging too. Euro zone governments will sell around 1.26 trillion euros of bonds gross this year, and crucially missing from the market in 2025 will be the ECB, which has already stopped reinvesting the proceeds from maturing bonds in a process known as quantitative tightening (QT).

In the absence of ECB purchases, the effective net bond supply facing the market could reach more than €660 billion - a record annual level. This supply may push up long-term borrowing costs relative to yields on short-term debt, which are anchored by central bank rate expectations, resulting in a steeper yield curve.

The bottom line: as the ECB steps back and issuers step up, Europe’s debt markets are entering a new period - where supply, not central bank support, is increasingly setting the tone. Short-term rates will likely remain anchored if the ECB stays cautious, but the long end of the yield curve may steepen, if the additional supply is not easily absorbed with the help of the foreign investors. So, avoid betting heavily on long maturities, and stay tuned to the European fiscal policy debates.

Author
Vladimir Tarantaev, CFA, PMP
Vladimir Tarantaev, a CFA expert in fixed income, has a strong track record in credit analysis at CIS banks and a diverse background in math-physics and astronomy.
Vladimir Tarantaev
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.
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