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31.05.2026
Weekly Bond Digest: May 25–31, 2026 | Bondfish
Weekly Bond Digest: May 25–31, 2026 | Bondfish
30

Yield Curves

EUR: The main driver was the news about a possible US-Iran deal, which eased the energy-price fears that had pushed yields to recent highs — so yields fell, with most markets dropping about 10–20bp over two weeks. For German Bunds, the middle of the curve fell the most, leaving euro yields back near the low end of their recent range. One thing worth noting: bonds still move quite a bit with oil prices, but their link to natural gas prices has weakened. Overall, the shape of the German Bund curve looks about fair.

USD: Again, the same reason: hopes of a US-Iran deal calmed the energy-price fears that had lifted yields, so yields fell here too. For US Treasuries, the longer-dated bonds dropped the most while short bonds barely moved. Even after this fall, US yields are still near the top of their recent range and look expensive compared with other big government bond markets, so there probably isn't much more room for them to drop. If anything, the bigger risk from here is the gap between long and short yields getting smaller.

GBP: Same story here: the big reason yields fell was the news about a possible US-Iran deal. That news calmed fears about energy prices, and those fears were what had pushed yields up to their recent highs. So as the worry faded, yields came back down. UK gilts fell the most, helped on top of that by some weaker UK economic data and less political worry after the 7 May local elections. The middle of the curve (around 2–5 years) dropped the most, while very short and very long bonds moved less. After such a strong rally, the simple takeaway is that most of the move has already happened, so it makes sense to be careful and not bet too heavily on yields falling much further.

 

EUR Germany Sovereign Curve

USD US Sovereign Curve

GBP UK Sovereign Curve

 

Top gainers

It was a calm week for credit, so the biggest gains came from company-specific news rather than the market as a whole. The standout was Kohl's 2045 bond, which rallied hard following a better-than-expected earnings update, while Ocado's 2030 bond rose on news of a new partnership with Asda. Long-dated Swiss government paper also jumped as the whole curve repriced lower: with inflation stuck near zero and markets leaning toward a possible return to negative rates, a late-May bill auction cleared at a negative yield (around −0.09%) on very strong demand, and that downshift was magnified in ultra-long, high-duration bonds. Romania's long-dated EUR debt firmed on continued fiscal-consolidation progress, with a sharply narrower budget deficit easing sovereign-downgrade risk. Elsewhere in Europe the moves were more modest, with names like Banque Postale edging higher.

Name Cur Price change
1w(%)
Yield Risk Level
Kohls 5.55% Jul 2045 USD 6,67% 9,73% VeryHigh
Reason
Kohl's reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings, with narrower loss and stable outlook.
 
Bell Tel Co 4.464% Apr 2048 USD 5,13% 5,69% Medium
Reason
Bell Canada launched a debt tender offer and refinanced with new lower-cost bonds.
 
Switzerland 0.5% May 2058 CHF 4,35% 0,57% VeryLow
Reason
Curve-wide repricing on possible SNB return to negative rates; ultra-long duration amplified the move.
 
Romania 4.625% Apr 2049 EUR 2,59% 6,38% Medium
Reason
Romania's long-dated EUR bonds firmed over the week on continued fiscal-consolidation progress: January–April budget data (released May 26) showed the deficit narrowing ~57% y/y to 1.17% of GDP, keeping the country on track for its 6.2% full-year target and reinforcing receding sovereign-downgrade risk — the key spread-tightening catalyst for Romanian credit. The gain came despite, not because of, the Friday Galați drone strike, which is a risk-off headline that would normally pressure yields higher. Soft offsets (NBR's end-2026 inflation forecast raised to 5.5%, a weak May retail bond auction, and post-government-dismissal political noise) capped the move, leaving it a modest spread-driven rally rather than a broad repricing.
 
Banque Postale 2.25% Oct 2028 EUR 2,56% 3,10% Medium
Reason
No clear positive issuer catalyst.
 
Vmed UK 4.5% Jul 2031 GBP 1,43% 8,16% High
Reason
No clear positive issuer catalyst.
 
Gatwick Funding 3.25% Feb 2048 GBP 1,40% 6,54% Medium
Reason
No clear positive issuer catalyst.
 
Ocado Group 11% Jun 2030 GBP 1,34% 8,92% VeryHigh
Reason
Ocado signed a partnership with Asda to power its UK online grocery platform from 2027.
 

Top losers

On the losing side, the moves were small and mostly tied to single names, in keeping with the week's quiet tone. Whirlpool's 2030 bond fell after Fitch cut its rating to BB- and the company suspended its dividend. Transocean slipped on antitrust concerns over its proposed Valaris takeover. Bausch Health also weakened, while European names such as SIG and Eramet saw only mild losses. With overall spreads barely moving, none of the declines were dramatic.

Name Cur Price change
1w(%)
Yield Risk Level
Bausch Health 7.25% May 2029 USD -1,23% 19,98% VeryHigh
Reason
No clear negative issuer catalyst.
 
Transocean Intl 6.8% Mar 2038 USD -1,11% 7,30% VeryHigh
Reason
Transocean's $5.8bn acquisition of Valaris raised antitrust concerns and leverage worries.
 
Whirlpool 6.125% Jun 2030 USD -1,11% 7,82% High
Reason
Multiple rating agencies downgraded Whirlpool; company also suspended its dividend.
 
Eramet 6.5% Nov 2029 EUR -0,95% 7,09% VeryHigh
Reason
No clear negative catalyst — the €500m capital increase (approved 27 May) is credit-supportive deleveraging, so the modest dip looks like a pullback after recent gains rather than a fresh negative, against a backdrop of ongoing operational and management challenges.
 
Thames Wtr Super 9.75% Oct 2027 GBP -0,49% 2,34% VeryHigh
Reason
No clear negative issuer catalyst.
 
Kinepolis 2.75% Dec 2026 EUR -0,47% 3,99% VeryHigh
Reason
No clear negative issuer catalyst.
 
Vanquis Banking 8.875% Jan 2032 GBP -0,37% 5,26% VeryHigh
Reason
Vanquis launched a tender for existing bonds and issued new debt, creating supply pressure.
 
Aviva 6.125% Nov 2036 GBP -0,17% 5,39% Medium
Reason
Aviva launched a tender offer and issued new bonds, creating near-term supply pressure.
 

Rating changes

The headline downgrade of the week was Baffinland Iron Mines slipping into default at D from S&P, while NTT lost its single-A status, cut to BBB+ by S&P, and Telesat Canada was pushed deeper into distress at CC. On the upgrade side, India led the way: Moody's lifted Reliance Industries to Baa1 and Tata Steel to Baa2. Uber Technologies pushed further into investment grade at BBB+ from S&P, while Fitch raised YPF to B-, nudging the Argentine energy group up out of the triple-C area.

Note: only long-term senior unsecured ratings were taken into account.

Issuer Agency Change
Aena SME Moody's A2 → A1
Allwyn S&P BB (new)
Anglogold Ashanti S&P BB+ → BBB-
ASM International S&P BB+ → BBB-
Assemblin Caverion Fitch B → B+
Baffinland Iron Mines S&P CCC- → D
C&S Group Enterprises S&P B → B-
C&S Wholesale Grocers S&P B → B-
Centrient S&P B → B-
Century Aluminum S&P B- → B
Cleco Power Fitch BBB → BBB+
Conair S&P CCC+ → SD
Emerald Technologies US Acquisitionco S&P D → CCC
Enstall S&P D → CCC+
Gulfside Supply S&P B → B-
Hanwha General Insurance S&P A → A+
Hanwha Life Insurance S&P A → A+
Infosys Moody's Baa1 → A2
Ingenovis Health S&P CC → SD
InterCement Participacoes Fitch B- (new)
Interpipe S&P CCC → CCC+
Kioxia Fitch BB+ → BBB-
McKesson Medical-Surgical Top S&P BB (new)
Medical Solutions Parent S&P CCC+ → CCC-
Myrrha SAS S&P B- → CCC+
NTT S&P A- → BBB+
Optiv S&P D → CCC+
Oscar Acquisitionco S&P SD → CCC
Puma Energy Holdings Pte Fitch BB → BB+
Reliance Industries Moody's Baa2 → Baa1
REN - Redes Energeticas Nacionais SGPS Moody's Baa2 → Baa1
Snap S&P B+ → BB-
Transgaz Fitch BBB- → BBB
Tata Consultancy Services Moody's Baa1 → A2
Tata Steel Moody's Baa3 → Baa2
Telesat Canada S&P CCC- → CC
Uber Technologies S&P BBB → BBB+
Unipol Assicurazioni Moody's Baa2 → Baa1
Viavi Solutions Fitch BB- → BB
Whirlpool Fitch BB → BB-
YPF Fitch CCC+ → B-

New issues

Primary markets stayed busy despite month-end holidays. Governments led the way: Spain raised €13bn in a single 10-year deal, with Portugal, Austria, and Finland also pricing long-dated sovereign bonds. In investment-grade corporates, SAP was the standout with a four-part €3.5bn euro transaction, joined by RELX, AXA, and SCOR. Banks were active too — Goldman Sachs raised around $6.5bn across several dollar tranches, and several Canadian banks tapped the market. US high yield reopened modestly with deals from PBF, Avis, and Worthington Steel.

The pipeline ahead looks significantly heavier. Paramount's ~$50bn financing package for its Warner Bros. merger is one of the year's largest credit tests, while a surge of AI data-centre borrowing — including a $36bn deal linked to Anthropic — adds to already record supply levels. Around $35bn of US investment-grade and €35bn+ of European issuance are expected in the coming week alone.

Issuer Size Term Yield Risk Level
Abanca EUR
0,50bn
8Y 3,9% Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
ES0265936080
 
AEP Transmission Company USD
0,65bn
10Y 5,3% Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
US00115AAT60
 
Agence Francaise De Developpement Epic USD
2,0bn
3Y 4,4% Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
FR0014018VR6
 
Assicurazioni Generali Spa EUR
0,75bn
11Y 4,4% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3388195441
 
Austria, Republic Of EUR
5,5bn
5–15Y 2,9–3,6% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
AT0000A3V200…AT0000A3V234
 
Avis Budget Car Rental USD
0,30bn
7Y 7,8% Very High
ISIN (CUSIP)
USU05375AV93
 
AXA EUR
0,75bn
30Y 4,4% Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3393830651
 
Banco De Credito Social Cooperativo EUR
0,50bn
6Y 3,9% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3396961289
 
Banco Santander USD
1,5bn
PERP 7,2% High
ISIN (CUSIP)
US05971KAY55
 
Bank Of Georgia USD
0,30bn
5Y 6,6% High
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3391767103
 
Bank Of Montreal EUR
2,0bn
3–7Y 2,9–3,2% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3397036123…XS3397036396
 
Bank Polska Kasa Opieki EUR
0,75bn
4Y 3,7% Very High
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3394773538
 
Bankinter EUR
0,75bn
8Y 3,8% Very High
ISIN (CUSIP)
ES0213679OV1
 
BBVA Mexico USD
1,0bn
5Y 5,4% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
USP2000GAB97
 
Bell Canada USD
0,65bn
10Y 5,5% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
US0778FPAS85
 
BKS Bank EUR
0,25bn
5Y 4,1% Very High
ISIN (CUSIP)
AT0000A3USG1
 
BNG Bank EUR
1,2bn
7Y 3,1% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3395922506
 
Bocom Leasing Management Hong Kong USD
0,75bn
3Y FLOAT, +48bp Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3392169754
 
Borr Ihc USD
1,1bn
6Y 9,0% Very High
ISIN (CUSIP)
USG1467FAH67
 
BPCE USD
2,8bn
6–11Y 5,2–5,8% Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
USF11494CR43…USF11494CS26
 
BT Finance EUR
0,85bn
8Y 3,9% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3392699396
 
Carrefour EUR
0,75bn
8Y 4,0% Very High
ISIN (CUSIP)
FR0014018Q93
 
Cassa Depositi E Prestiti Spa EUR
0,75bn
5Y 3,3% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
IT0005713042
 
Co-Operative Group GBP
0,35bn
6Y 8,2% Very High
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3392868256
 
Commerzbank EUR
0,75bn
7Y 3,8% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
DE000CZ46CR1
 
Credito Emiliano Spa EUR
0,50bn
6Y 3,6% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3395932489
 
DNB Bank Asa GBP
0,60bn
6Y 5,1% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3400932599
 
Element Fleet Management USD
0,50bn
3Y 4,8% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
USC3318LAH45
 
European Stability Mechanism EUR
2,0bn
5Y 2,9% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
EU000A1Z99Z8
 
Bosnia and Herzegovina EUR
0,80bn
5Y 5,2% Very High
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3385959302
 
Finland, Republic Of USD
1,5bn
10Y 55,9% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3396019336
 
Florida Power & Light USD
1,6bn
30–40Y 5,8–5,9% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
US341081HD24…US341081HE07
 
Gecina EUR
0,50bn
5Y 3,5% Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
FR0014018W12
 
Hana Securities USD
0,30bn
5Y 5,0% Very High
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3344489755
 
Hera Spa EUR
0,50bn
6Y 3,6% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3350935774
 
Ithaca Energy EUR
0,15bn
PERP 5,5% Very High
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3186903756
 
Iutecredit Finance Sarl EUR
0,14bn
5Y 12,0% Very High
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3047514446
 
Kommunalbanken Norway USD
1,5bn
5Y 4,2% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3395953998
 
La Banque Postale EUR
0,65bn
8Y 4,0% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
FR0014018T74
 
Licheng International Development USD
0,15bn
3Y 4,8% Very High
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3393614873
 
Madrid, Community Of EUR
0,50bn
5Y 3,0% Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
ES00001010T9
 
National Australia Bank USD
3,0bn
3–11Y, PERP 4,4–5,6%; FLOAT Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
US632525CT68…USQ6535DCS10
 
National Bank Of Canada USD
1,0bn
6Y 4,9% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
63307A3Q6
 
Natwest Group GBP
0,50bn
PERP 7,5% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3394864766
 
Navient USD
0,50bn
5Y 9,4% High
ISIN (CUSIP)
US63938CAR97
 
Nederlandse Waterschapsbank EUR
1,0bn
7Y 3,1% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3398041338
 
Neo Next+ Energy USD
0,75bn
5Y 6,6% Very High
ISIN (CUSIP)
NO0013754648
 
New York Life Global Funding USD
0,70bn
10Y 5,2% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
64952XFS5
 
NGPL Pipeco USD
0,72bn
10Y 5,6% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
U6536EAG1
 
Nokia Oyj EUR
0,50bn
6Y 3,7% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3397145767
 
Northwestern Mutual Global Funding USD
0,70bn
5Y 4,7% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
66815M3B1
 
Nutrien USD
1,0bn
5–10Y 4,9–5,4% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
US67077MBG24…US67077MBH07
 
Oman Arab Bank Saog USD
0,40bn
PERP 6,8% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3303713310
 
Ontario, Province Of USD
3,0bn
10Y 4,9% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
US683234D471
 
OTP Bank EUR
0,50bn
7Y 3,4% Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3392853902
 
PBF Holding Company USD
0,50bn
8Y 7,2% High
ISIN (CUSIP)
USU70453AJ15
 
Polardc EUR
0,80bn
4Y FLOAT, +600bp Very High
ISIN (CUSIP)
NO0013752949
 
Portugal, Republic Of EUR
3,0bn
20Y 3,9% Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
PTOTEEOE0019
 
Principal Financial Group USD
0,40bn
11Y 5,3% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
US74251VAW28
 
Quebec, Province Of USD
3,0bn
10Y 4,7% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
US748148SJ30
 
Regions Bank USD
1,0bn
3Y 4,8% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
US759187JX65
 
Relx Finance Bv EUR
1,5bn
3–8Y 3,3–3,9% Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3317606419…XS3317607060
 
SAP EUR
3,5bn
2–7Y 3,1–3,5%; FLOAT, +33bp Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3393867810…XS3393869782
 
Scor EUR
0,50bn
30Y 4,5% Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
FR0014018PB2
 
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab USD
0,60bn
PERP 6,8% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3394042322
 
Smith & Nephew EUR
0,50bn
12Y 4,3% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3384821834
 
Spain, Kingdom Of EUR
13,0bn
10Y 3,4% Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
ES0000012S22
 
Standard Chartered USD
1,0bn
PERP 7,0% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
USG84228HJ04
 
Stellantis Financial Services Us USD
2,5bn
3–5Y 5,4–5,8% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
USU8586FAD07…USU8586FAE89
 
Suedzucker International Finance Bv EUR
0,40bn
5Y 4,5% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3393874436
 
Swedbank Hypotek Ab EUR
1,0bn
7Y 3,1% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3400528116
 
Sydbank A/S EUR
0,50bn
5Y 3,7% Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3391818963
 
Triodos Bank EUR
0,25bn
11Y 5,6% High
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3386634391
 
UBS EUR
1,2bn
6Y 3,4% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3393866259
 
UBS USD
1,5bn
4Y 4,7% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
US90261AAJ16
 
UBS Switzerland EUR
0,75bn
3Y 3,3% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
CH1331113469
 
Valeo EUR
0,60bn
7Y 5,0% High
ISIN (CUSIP)
FR0014018J35
 
Veralto USD
0,72bn
6Y 4,8% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
US92338CAP86
 
Volkswagen Financial Services GBP
0,35bn
3Y 5,2% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3398382674
 
Worthington Steel USD
0,70bn
7Y 7,8% High
ISIN (CUSIP)
USU46013AA33
 
Yiwu State Owned Capital Operation USD
0,35bn
3Y 4,3% Very High
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3376923549
 

Chart of the Week

A common question in investment circles is why bond volatility should matter at all if the principal is returned in full at maturity. Two factors drive it. The first is duration: the longer the maturity, the more a bond's price moves when rates change — a 30-year bond swings far more than a 2-year. The second is credit quality: lower-rated issuers are more volatile, as the market continually reprices the odds of default, and a single weak earnings report or downgrade can shift sentiment quickly. The catch is that holding to maturity is not guaranteed. Liquidity needs can force an early sale at whatever price the secondary market offers. So the decision to buy a bond should rest on more than yield — it should also weigh how likely an early exit might be, and how far the price could move against the holder if one becomes necessary.

Infographic showing two drivers of bond volatility: 1) Duration — longer maturity bonds lose more value when rates rise (2-year: −2%, 10-year: −8%, 30-year: −18%), and 2) Credit quality — lower-rated bonds (AAA, BBB, high-yield) are increasingly volatile as the market reprices default risk.

This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Investments in securities and other financial instruments always involve the risk of loss of your capital. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.