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11.10.2023
Alstom SA Bond Yields Surge Amidst Cash Flow Challenges
Alstom SA Bond Yields Surge Amidst Cash Flow Challenges
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Alstom SA bond yields see significant shifts due to substantial financial challenges and uncertainties, including a drastic fall in share prices, reduced free cash flow targets, concerns over management credibility, and potential impacts on the company's investment-grade rating.

Investors in Alstom SA's bonds are witnessing a notable change in yields as the financial landscape of the company takes a challenging turn. The bond in focus is the ALSTOM SA 0% 11-Jan-2029 EUR (FR0014001EW8), which has witnessed a notable shift in its yield, increasing by 101 basis points to 5.3% over the week. This yield surge comes as Alstom SA faces a series of unprecedented difficulties that have taken a toll on its market value.

Yield curve illustration showing the performance of the ALSTOM SA bond (FR0014001EW8), with a 0% coupon, due on January 11, 2029, in Euros.

The widening yield can be attributed to a series of concerning developments within Alstom SA. Firstly, on October 5th, Alstom's shares plummeted by 37.5% to 13.3 euros. This drastic fall was triggered by the company's decision to significantly cut its full-year free cash flow (FCF) target, marking the most substantial one-day share price drop in over two decades. The reduced FCF guidance is a direct result of order delays and increased production, which have put immense pressure on the company's cash flow. Alstom now anticipates a cash outflow of 500-750 million euros for the year, a stark contrast to the consensus projection of a 152 million euro outflow. Analysts note that times have changed from when zero interest rates allowed companies to weather negative cash flow without concern.

Furthermore, Deutsche Bank analysts regarded this development as a "major blow to management's credibility," as they expect Alstom to end the year with net debt of 3 billion euros, significantly more than the initial projections. The cost of insuring Alstom's debt against default also reached its highest point since the prior November. Traders voiced concerns about Alstom potentially losing its investment-grade rating, casting doubt on investor confidence in the company's management. The company's senior unsecured debt currently holds a Baa3 rating from Moody's.

Alstom SA's acquisition of Bombardier in 2020 has presented a host of formidable challenges. Market concerns have escalated as the company explores options to sell assets and potentially raise capital. Of particular note is the UK Aventra project, encompassing 443 trains that serve vital routes including the London Overground and Elizabeth Line. The project's delay, contributing significantly to the shift in cash flow, is primarily attributed to a substantial increase in inventory driven by production expansion and order backlog. Coupled with a decline in new orders, these developments have garnered attention from analysts and heightened industry apprehension.

The yield chart for Alstom SA Euro-denominated bonds as of October 11, 2023:

The yield chart for Alstom SA Euro-denominated bonds as of October 11, 2023

About Alstom

Alstom SA provides transportation services and operates across several segments: urban and mainline transportation, signaling, services, and integrated solutions. Established in 1989, the company is headquartered in Saint-Ouen, France.

This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.