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18.10.2026
Weekly bond digest: October 12 – October 18, 2026
Weekly bond digest: October 12 – October 18, 2026
7

Yield Curves

German government bonds edged higher this week, so yields fell slightly. The 10-year yield dropped 6 basis points to 3.42%, and the 2-year slipped 2 basis points to 3.09%. Worries about AI stocks drove the moves, not energy: gas prices hit new highs, yet euro yields barely reacted. The gap between Italian and German 10-year yields narrowed from 109 to 106 basis points, as concerns about the euro area's more indebted governments kept easing. Investors now look ahead to Moody's review of France's rating on October 23 and to new business surveys next week.

EUR Germany Sovereign Curve

US Treasuries rallied, and long-term bonds gained the most. The 10-year yield fell from 5.24% to 5.07%, the 30-year dropped 17 basis points to 5.42%, and the 2-year fell 8 basis points to 4.71%. Yields rose on Wednesday after a strong inflation report, then reversed as a sell-off in AI-related stocks spread from South Korea to the Nasdaq. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she felt no urgency to raise rates again, and Chair Kevin Warsh said the economy had behaved broadly as the Fed expected, which ended bets on a rate rise in October. Long-term yields also fell on speculation that the Treasury might sell fewer long-term bonds; it announces its next borrowing plans on November 4.

USD US Sovereign Curve

UK gilts gained too, though less than Treasuries. The 10-year yield fell 7 basis points to 5.37%, and the 30-year fell 10 basis points to 5.84%, while the 2-year barely moved at 4.88%. Short-term yields stayed high because markets still expect the Bank of England to raise rates, with a hike in November almost fully priced in. The Bank's Chief Economist Huw Pill pushed back this week, saying he doubted that four rate rises would be needed over the next year. Next week brings September inflation figures, and Chancellor John Healey presents his budget on October 28.

GBP UK Sovereign Curve

For long-term investors, today's government bond yields look attractive. Over the past 25 years, when yields started near current levels, government bonds maturing in 5 to 10 years made money over the following 12 months every time in the US and the UK, and in 74% to 100% of cases in the euro area.

Top gainers

Long-dated US bonds led the gains as Treasury yields fell. When yields drop, bonds with the longest maturities rise the most. Howard University's 2051 bond gained the most, up 3.4%, and MIT's 100-year bonds due in 2111 and 2114 rose 3.4% and 3.2%. The 2052 bond of ratings firm Moody's added 3.3%, and drinks maker Keurig Dr Pepper's 2048 bond rose 3.2%.

Name Cur Price change
1w (%)
Yield Risk Level
Howard Uni 4.756% Oct 2051 USD 3,40% 7,16% Medium
MIT USA 5.6% Jul 2111 USD 3,35% 6,15% Very Low
Moody's 3.75% Feb 2052 USD 3,30% 6,20% Medium
Keurig Dr Pepper 5.085% May 2048 USD 3,21% 6,50% Medium
MIT USA 4.678% Jul 2114 USD 3,16% 6,14% Very Low
Archer Daniels 6.95% Dec 2097 USD 3,05% 6,34% Low
Kyndryl Holdings 4.1% Oct 2041 USD 3,00% 7,65% Medium
Microsoft 4.75% Nov 2055 USD 2,99% 5,98% Very Low
Public SVC E&G 4.15% Nov 2045 USD 2,90% 6,22% Low
Norfolk Southern 5.1% Aug 2118 USD 2,90% 6,22% Medium

Top losers

Riskier bonds fell as US junk bond yields climbed to their highest level in 18 months. AI cloud company CoreWeave's 2030 bond dropped 6.2% after its co-founder said it was looking at borrowing in the investment-grade market, which made investors fear much more debt. Paramount Global's 2031 bond lost 3.7%, as investors worried about the debt Paramount Skydance took on to buy Warner Bros. Discovery. Glass maker Owens-Brockway's 2032 bond, home appliance maker Whirlpool's 2033 bond and tyre maker Goodyear's 2031 bond each lost between 2.1% and 2.4%.

Name Cur Price change
1w (%)
Yield Risk Level
CoreWeave 9.25% Jun 2030 USD -6,23% 14,21% Very High
Paramount Global 4.95% Jan 2031 USD -3,71% 10,78% High
Owens Brockway 7.375% Jun 2032 USD -2,44% 11,18% Very High
Whirlpool 5.5% Mar 2033 USD -2,33% 12,97% High
Goodyear 5.25% Jul 2031 USD -2,13% 10,60% Very High
GLP Pte 9.75% May 2028 USD -2,06% 20,87% High
Goodyear 5.25% Apr 2031 USD -2,03% 10,53% Very High
Oracle 5.95% Sep 2055 USD -1,83% 8,50% Medium
MHP Lux 6.25% Sep 2029 USD -1,83% 12,27% Very High
Oracle 6.5% Apr 2038 USD -1,67% 7,81% Medium

Rating changes

Note: only long-term senior unsecured ratings were taken into account.

Upgrades outnumbered downgrades this week, 20 to 16. S&P raised memory-chip maker Sandisk two notches to BBB and wire maker Southwire to BBB-, so both now have investment-grade ratings. Moody's lifted Egypt to B3 from Caa1. On the downside, S&P cut Warner Bros. Discovery to BB, a notch deeper into junk, after its takeover by Paramount Skydance added a large amount of debt. Fitch cut paper maker Domtar three notches to CCC+.

Issuer Agency Change
1440 Foods Topco S&P CCC+ → CCC
A2Dominion Housing Fitch A → A-
Allstate Fitch BBB+u → A-u
Almaviva Developpement S&P B → B-
Arab Republic of Egypt Moody's Caa1 → B3
Botswana Development Corporation Moody's Baa3 → Ba1
Bread Financial Moody's Ba2 → Ba1
Clear Channel Outdoor S&P CCC+ → B+
Cogent Communications S&P B- → CCC+
Corus Entertainment S&P D → CCC
Dechra Topco Fitch B+ → B
DISH DBS S&P D → CCC+
Domtar Fitch B+ → CCC+
Falabella Fitch BBB- → BBB
GEO Group S&P BB- → BB
Grant Thornton Advisors S&P B → B+
Hyde Housing Association Fitch A → A-
Kallpa Generacion Fitch BBB- → BBB
Kier Group Fitch BB+ → BBB-
Kioxia S&P BBB- → BBB
New Oriental Education Moody's Baa3 → Baa2
Nitrogenmuvek S&P CCC+ → B-
Nordea Bank Moody's Aa2 → Aa3
Polygon S&P B → CCC+
Rekeep S&P B → B-
Republic of Cameroon Fitch B → B-
Russell Investments S&P BB- (new)
Sabert S&P B+ → B
Sandisk S&P BB+ → BBB
SLB S&P A → A+
SouthState Bank Moody's Baa3 → Baa2
Southwire S&P BB+ → BBB-
SWF Holdings I S&P CCC+ → CCC
Unite Group S&P BBB+ → BBB
Vector S&P BBB+ → A-
Warner Bros. Discovery S&P BB+ → BB

New issues

New bond sales slowed as many companies stayed away ahead of their quarterly results and markets swung. Euro-area investment-grade sales totalled about €5 billion, leaving October on track to be the slowest since 2023, and only three US junk bond deals priced, worth $2 billion in total. The table shows only bonds sold in small lots, with a minimum investment of 2,000 or less in the bond's currency. Deals sold only in large blocks, or only to big US institutional investors, are left out. Banks borrowed easily after their results: JPMorgan Chase sold bonds in three parts at yields of up to 6.1%, and Bank of Nova Scotia raised $2.3 billion in four parts, with fixed yields of 5.4% to 5.9%. Hospital operator Select Medical paid 7.6% on an 8-year bond. In euros, the European Union sold €10 billion of 7- and 15-year bonds at 3.8% to 4.4%, and Luxembourg borrowed €1.7 billion for 10 years at 3.7%.

Issuer Size Term Yield Risk Level
African Development Bank EUR
1,0bn
5Y 3,6% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3544706750
 
Bank of Nova Scotia USD
2,3bn
3–6Y 5,4–5,9%; FLOAT Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
US06418GBH92…US06418GBJ58
 
City of Dortmund EUR
0,20bn
7Y 4,0% Very High
ISIN (CUSIP)
DE000A5GS545
 
European Investment Bank EUR
3,0bn
7Y 3,6% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
EU000A4E2K37
 
European Union EUR
10,0bn
7–15Y 3,8–4,4% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
EU000A4EUY43…EU000A4E2KT0
 
Grand Duchy of Luxembourg EUR
1,7bn
10Y 3,7% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
LU3534860476
 
International Development Association EUR
1,0bn
30Y 4,3% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS3538132773
 
JPMorgan Chase USD
7,0bn
4–11Y 5,6–6,1%; FLOAT Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
US48128BAY74…48128BBA8
 
KfW GBP
0,18bn
4Y 4,2% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
XS2807461699
 
Landesbank Baden-Württemberg EUR
0,75bn
2Y 3,5% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
DE000LB2EQY7
 
Lennar USD
0,60bn
3–5Y 5,7–6,0% Medium
ISIN (CUSIP)
US526057CZ52…US526057DA92
 
Select Medical USD
0,90bn
8Y 7,6% High
ISIN (CUSIP)
USU8149GAA41
 
State of Saxony-Anhalt EUR
0,50bn
5Y 3,6% Very Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
DE000A5GS7Z4
 
State Street USD
0,75bn
11Y 6,0% Low
ISIN (CUSIP)
US857477DM24
 
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Investments in securities and other financial instruments always involve the risk of loss of your capital. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.