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06.10.2026
Sovereign Debt Crisis: Comparing Sovereign, Hyperscaler and AI Bond Yields
Sovereign Debt Crisis: Comparing Sovereign, Hyperscaler and AI Bond Yields
30
Sovereign bonds are in the middle of a debt crisis, and what is striking is not so much (or not only) how far yields have risen, but how fast. The ‘endless’ war in the Middle East and the energy problem that comes with it, a debt crisis that now affects everyone, the United States included, and political problems (mostly in Europe) all mean that investors are demanding ever higher yields to finance governments.

Government bonds · G7 + EU

Sovereign bond yields by maturity

1.9%5.4%
Country / Issuer2 years5 years7 years10 years
United Kingdom4.82%4.91%5.15%5.37%
United States4.80%5.03%5.14%5.26%
France3.73%4.27%4.47%4.86%
Italy3.53%4.05%4.26%4.61%
EU (Eurobond)3.31%3.68%3.90%4.19%
Canada3.27%3.62%3.68%3.94%
Germany3.04%3.19%3.30%3.45%
Japan1.91%2.35%2.86%3.08%
The highest 10-year yield belongs to the United Kingdom, which is vying with Australia for this far from coveted title. With debt at 100% of GDP and interest costs rising, Prime Minister Burnham simply cannot afford to spend more than necessary, with the specter of Farage looming no later than 2029. Sterling is a mirror of the debt: it could weaken if yields keep rising.
Germany, one of the few countries to boast the coveted triple-A rating, the highest level of creditworthiness, has among the lowest yields in the table but has its own problems, politics first and foremost. The divide is no longer only between center-right and center-left, but also (and above all) between pro-Europeans and sovereigntists, with the possible break-up of the Union in the background, which would be an untold disaster of epic proportions. So: the best yields, but proceed with caution.
Japan has the lowest rates, but the country is in the midst of a historic realignment (of rates) that should bring it into line with other countries. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda faces pressure from two sides, domestic pressure for lower rates and external pressure for higher ones, yet further rate hikes between now and 2027 are very likely, and they would push yields higher. Watch the yen: if the central bank is seen as lagging in normalizing rates, the currency will keep weakening.
As for the hyperscalers, it is worth noting that some of these companies borrow at lower rates than the United States, which, unlike them, carries a debt stock above 100% of GDP and an annual deficit of 6% that neither Republicans nor Democrats are committed to reducing. A name like Apple has very strong cash flows and is free (no small thing these days) of political risk. In many countries Treasuries also get more favorable tax treatment than corporate bonds, so on an after-tax basis they can still come out ahead. Not on volatility, though.
Among the companies with the largest capex, Google is doing well, better than Amazon, Meta and Oracle. In general, if the stock does well, so does the debt, and vice versa.

Corporate bonds · AI and hyperscalers

How Big Tech bonds yield against US Treasuries

USD bondsEUR bonds10-year US Treasury
SAP1.625% 2031 · EUR, estimate
3.55%
Apple1.65% 2030 · USD
5.23%
Alphabet (Google)1.10% 2030 · USD
5.32%
Amazon4.25% 2031 · USD
5.45%
Meta Platforms4.875% 2033 · USD
5.88%
Oracle6.25% 2032 · USD
7.03%
UST 10Y 5.26%
Bond / ISINCurrencyMaturityMin. lotYield
Apple 1.65% 2030US037833DU14USDMay 11, 2030$2,0005.23%
Alphabet (Google) 1.10% 2030US02079KAD90USDAug 15, 2030$2,0005.32%
Amazon 4.25% 2031US023135DD51USDMar 13, 2031$2,0005.45%
Meta Platforms 4.875% 2033US30303MAG78USDMay 15, 2033$2,0005.88%
Oracle 6.25% 2032US68389XCJ28USDNov 9, 2032$2,0007.03%
SAP 1.625% 2031DE000A2TSTG3EURMar 10, 2031€1,0003.55%
Finally, among the AI names, SpaceX is the only company already listed, and its rates are about two points above those of the United States. Again, at the corporate level you worry about the company rather than politics, but unfortunately you pay for it in yield.
The OpenAI/SoftBank case is unusual. OpenAI is behind Anthropic in revenue growth, and it is interesting that it turned to one of its biggest investors to raise money rather than doing so itself. Postponing the IPO to 2027 has certainly not helped either OpenAI or SoftBank. Rates are very high, much higher than SpaceX’s, which points to more doubts about the future of the AI leaders than about the colonization of Mars, where Elon Musk’s company operates unchallenged. Then again, there are the satellites too.

AI leaders and SpaceX · debt

Which AI players have issued bonds, and at what price

UST 10YUS Treasury, benchmark
5.26%
SpaceX 20365.875% · USD
7.14%
SpaceX 20566.65% · USD
7.92%
SoftBank 20318.25% · USD
8.36%
Author
Giorgio Vintani
Financial consultant and portfolio manager with 30 years of experience at leading investment management institutions. Named among Europe’s Top 100 Fund Managers by Citywire, he has managed long-only, long/short, absolute-return and relative-return US equity portfolios, as well as global and multi-asset strategies for institutional and private clients. His specialist areas include global consumer companies, financials and emerging markets.
Giorgio Vintani
This article does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendation. Investments in securities and other financial instruments always involve the risk of loss of your capital. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bondfish does not recommend using the data and information provided as the only basis for making any investment decision. You should not make any investment decisions without first conducting your own research and considering your own financial situation.

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Author
Giorgio Vintani
Financial consultant and portfolio manager with 30 years of experience at leading investment management institutions. Named among Europe’s Top 100 Fund Managers by Citywire, he has managed long-only, long/short, absolute-return and relative-return US equity portfolios, as well as global and multi-asset strategies for institutional and private clients. His specialist areas include global consumer companies, financials and emerging markets.
Giorgio Vintani