Weekly bond digest: November 2 – November 8, 2026

Government bond yields fell in the US, the UK and Germany in the first week of November. Oil prices dropped sharply on hopes of calm in the Middle East after the US midterm elections. UK gilts rallied even as the Bank of England raised rates to 4%.

Tech bonds went the other way. Worries about AI spending after the Democratic midterm win weighed on Oracle and Intel bonds. Meanwhile, Meta, Oracle and Apple together raised more than $30 billion in new dollar bonds.

Yield Curves

German government bond yields fell, with the 10-year down 6 to 7 basis points to about 3.25%. The main driver was a sharp drop in oil and gas prices. After the US midterm elections, hopes grew that the conflict between the US and Iran will calm down. Brent crude fell to around $98 a barrel. Cheaper energy eases inflation worries, so markets now expect about two more rate rises from the European Central Bank, fewer than before. Doubts about AI spending, which hit tech stocks, also pushed investors toward safe government bonds. The extra yield on Italian, Spanish and French bonds over German ones kept shrinking.

US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 7 to 8 basis points to about 4.85%. Cheaper oil and a 5% drop in the tech-heavy Nasdaq index sent investors into safe government bonds. The Democrats' sweep in the midterms also eased worries about the Fed's independence. The new Senate makes it harder to reshape the Fed's board. The Treasury kept the size of its bond auctions unchanged, so there will be no extra supply of long-term debt for now. On Friday, a strong jobs report pushed short-term yields back up. The economy added 165,000 jobs, against 70,000 expected, which kept a Fed rate hike in December on the table.

UK gilts rallied more than US and German bonds, with the 10-year yield down more than 10 basis points to just above 5.1%. The Bank of England raised its rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4% on Thursday, as expected. One policymaker voted for a bigger rise of 0.5 points, and the bank said every meeting is open for another hike. Gilts still gained because UK yields react strongly to energy prices. The sharp fall in oil and gas prices eased fears that inflation will stay high.

Markets are moving on headlines about the Middle East and tech stocks, so the near-term direction of yields is hard to call. For long-term investors, medium-term German government bonds yielding above 3% still look like an attractive level to lock in.

Top gainers

Falling government bond yields lifted long-dated bonds, whose prices react most when yields move. Kyndryl's 2041 bond led the table with a 4.5% gain, followed by Global Payments' 2052 bond at 3.7%. Ukraine's 2036 dollar bond rose 3.1%. Greece's 2054 bond gained 2.7% as the extra yield on southern European government debt over German debt kept shrinking. Ford's 2046 bond added 2.6%.

Top losers

Energy and tech bonds took the biggest losses. Oil prices fell sharply on hopes of calm in the Middle East, which hurt oil producers. Apache's 2049 bond led the losers with a 2.6% drop, and YPF's 2033 bond lost 2.4%. In tech, investors worried that the Democratic win in the US midterms could slow spending on AI data centers and delay its payoff. Six of the ten biggest losers were Oracle bonds, led by its 2064 bond at -2.6%, while Intel's 2060 bond fell 2.5%.

Rating changes

Note: only long-term senior unsecured ratings were taken into account.

S&P cut both German carmakers, Mercedes-Benz and BMW, by one notch to A-. S&P also lowered software company Salesforce to A from A+. On the upside, S&P raised Danish biotech company Genmab to BBB-, which lifts it to investment grade. Fitch did the same for US freight company XPO, upgrading it to BBB-.

New issues

Big tech kept borrowing heavily to pay for AI. Meta sold $15 billion of dollar bonds on US Election Day. It then raised €9 billion in its first euro bond sale, which drew a record €53 billion of orders. Investors still asked for more yield. Meta's 30-year bond priced 2.2 percentage points above Treasuries, almost 0.9 points more than a similar Meta bond in April. Oracle raised $10 billion and paid about 0.35 percentage points more than on its existing bonds. Apple sold $7 billion across six bonds. Outside tech, HCA raised $6.5 billion and Romania sold €4.5 billion of bonds. In Europe, companies with strong credit ratings sold €38 billion of bonds, the fifth-busiest week on record.

The table shows only bonds sold in small lots, with a minimum investment of 2,000 or less in the bond’s currency. Deals sold only in large blocks, or only to big US institutional investors, are left out.